One-point voter swing from Labour to Reform or Lib Dems at next election would make Conservatives the largest party in Commons, new analysis finds
A one-point voter swing from Labour to Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats at the next election would make the Conservatives the largest party, new analysis has found.
Labour's landslide election win last year was underpinned by narrowly winning swathes of 'highly marginal' seats across the country.
Their fragile coalition of voters means that a tiny swing from Labour to Reform on current voting intention would see the Conservatives, on 195 seats, be the largest party in the Commons, according to polling from More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab.
A similar swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats would see Kemi Badenoch's party end up with 200 seats, meanwhile.
National polling shows Labour, Reform UK and the Tories almost neck-and-neck with voters.
Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, said last night: 'Reform UK has posed the greatest threat to Labour. It's clear that they have managed to tap into the public's sense of disillusionment. Voters don't feel as though they've seen the change that was promised - Labour's victory was driven by impatience for something different.
'Labour's challenge isn't just from the left or right - it's the difficulty of holding together a broad but shallow voter coalition. There's a real risk of voters splintering towards the left, right, and centre.'
A one point swing from Labour to Reform UK or the Liberal Democrats in the next election could make the Conservatives the biggest party, new analysis has found (Pictured: Kemi Badenoch)
Labour's loveless landslide in the last election saw them bag the win (Pictured: Sir Keir Starmer)
A graph from March 2025 showing the latest Party Leader approval leaders
Just seven in ten voters who opted for Labour at the last election would do so again if another poll was held today. Voters abandoning the party have splintered equally to Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.
Remarkably, a swing of just one point on the current voting intention from Labour to either Reform or the Liberal Democrats would make the Conservatives the largest party after the next election.
A third of those opting against are traditional Tory voters who chose Labour for the first time last July, with the primary reasons for switching being the controversial slashing of the Winter Fuel Allowance and continued concerns over immigration.
Other Labour 'switchers' will primarily judge them on how much they reduce NHS waiting lists before deciding whether to go for them a second time, according to the research.
The research also shows that Keir Starmer's approval rating with voters has dropped faster than any newly elected Prime Minister in living memory.
The Labour leader enjoyed a short honeymoon period after last July's election which saw his approval rating - the proportion who think he is doing a good job minus those who think he is doing a bad job - reach +11.
Less than nine months later, however, Sir Keir's rating plummeted to -39, before enjoying a bump back to -28 after high-profile meetings with US President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He still sits behind Ms Badenoch, who has gradually slipped to a -20 rating.
More in Common suggested the government's more unpopular policies, such as spending cuts or tax increases, have overshadowed more well-liked announcements on raising the minimum wage and boosting workers' rights.
The research also shows that Keir Starmer's approval rating with voters has dropped faster than any newly elected Prime Minister in living memory
The current VI among 2024 Labour voters according to More in Common as of February 2925
The report states: 'Most damaging to public sentiment has been the cut to the Winter Fuel Allowance - mentioned in nearly every focus group (by both recipients and their children and grandchildren) since it was announced and which has left many voters feeling deeply betrayed.'
The majority of voters said the General Election gave Starmer a mandate to radically change the country, no matter what party they opted for. But almost a year on from entering Downing Street, Britons are twice as likely to say that the Labour government feels like 'more of the same' compared to the previous Conservative government than genuinely different.
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice MP said: 'Since getting into government, all Labour has done is attack working people and made our country poorer and weaker. It's no wonder voters up and down the country are turning away from Labour's failed track record and towards Reform UK's positive vision for the future of Britain.'
In one focus group, George, a plumber from Finchley in north London, said: '[I'm a] Lifelong Tory voter, [it was my] first time voting Labour because I'd just had enough of the sleaze from the Tories, and these guys have just told a pack of lies to get in and they're pretty much doing the same thing.'
