If Labour ran an Easter egg hunt, the eggs would be tiny (and you'd have to hand half of them back) writes LORD ASHCROFT. But - sorry, Kemi - voters in my poll were just as scathing about the Tories

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A changing global order can affect domestic politics in one of three ways. Governments can be thrown out as voters are drawn to new parties and leaders more in tune with the times. Or people can get behind familiar incumbents, as we saw when the Tories rocketed in the polls during the early days of Covid.

Alternatively, things can bumble along pretty much as they were, but with extra grumbling.

Three months to the day since President Trump was inaugurated for his second stint, it already feels as though we have had a year’s worth of news.

The era of globalisation, we are told, is over. True to our national character, however, there is little sense of panic.

My latest poll finds most people believing that tariffs will fall as Trump does his deals around the world. Few want Britain to respond in kind, or to risk rocking the boat by cancelling his forthcoming State visit. There is no clamour to rejoin the EU for greater protection, nor to seek a closer relationship with China.

Even so, people tend to see more threats than opportunities in the way the world is changing. When we ask what is likely to stay or go – and how they feel about the prospect either way – we find that the least popular features of global life are the things people think most likely to persist. Most expect continued large-scale immigration into Britain, as well as the availability of cheap goods from China (which many say they consider a bad thing, despite persistent complaints about the cost of living).

Three months to the day since President Trump was inaugurated for his second stint, it already feels as though we have had a year’s worth of news

Few have much confidence that the Prime Minister will successfully protect Britain’s interests – either because they believe no leader could do so in the current climate or (more often) because they don’t think Keir Starmer is up to it

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And very few think the current upheaval heralds the end of British politics as we know it, however much many voters might wish otherwise. Despite his pledge to intervene to help our industries and conclude a new trade deal with the US, few have much confidence that the Prime Minister will successfully protect Britain’s interests – either because they believe no leader could do so in the current climate or (more often) because they don’t think Keir Starmer is up to it.

More broadly, voters are much more likely to say Labour are bringing change for the worse than for the better, with those who switched to the party last year evenly divided between the two views. Only a minority of 2024 Labour voters think the government is improving things.

One reason is that with a bleaker global outlook – not to mention self-inflicted moves such as more regulations and extra costs for employers – the economy is stagnant, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an ever-tougher struggle to balance the books.

But to many, including a big chunk of Labour’s own supporters, tough decisions such as trimming the welfare budget look less like prudent economic management and more a continuation of austerity – and Tory austerity at that.

While Conservatives in the Cameron-Osborne years supported the ‘long-term economic plan’ to take a stern approach to the public finances, those who backed Starmer last July hoped for something different. As someone who had reluctantly backed Labour at the Election put it in a focus group in Scotland, choosing between the two main parties’ economic policies felt like choosing ‘between gonorrhoea and chlamydia’.

When we asked what an Easter egg hunt organised by the Labour party would be like, we were told: ‘They would be very, very small eggs. And you’d have to give half of them back.’ (The other parties did not come away unscathed: the Conservatives would have a bouncer on the door to make sure only people with a certain income got in; the Reform UK event would be held in a pub garden and descend into a drunken fist fight; and the SNP would say: ‘We haven’t got any eggs because England hasn’t given us the budget.’) All of which helps explain why, despite the disruptions of recent months, domestic politics looks much the same as it has for most of the year, with Labour, the Tories and Reform still within a few points of each other in the least-unpopular-party stakes. In fact, despite the multiple challenges piling up on the PM’s desk, it is Kemi Badenoch who is entering a critical phase of her leadership.

One reason is that with a bleaker global outlook – not to mention self-inflicted moves such as more regulations and extra costs for employers – the economy is stagnant, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an ever-tougher struggle to balance the books

Despite the multiple challenges piling up on the PM’s desk, it is Kemi Badenoch who is entering a critical phase of her leadership

Her statement that Britain should abandon the target of net zero by 2050 was well received among Conservative and Reform-inclined voters (or at least those who heard it). But when we ask Tory voters who would make the best PM, her lead over Starmer and Farage has fallen back since January – perhaps partly due to Starmer’s measured response to the global dramas. The same is true when we ask who they most trust to run the economy.

That pressure will intensify with the local elections in England, 11 days from today. As I found in my poll, most Conservatives expect the party to make gains, no doubt on the assumption that voters will want to show their disgruntlement with an unpopular Labour government. But the General Election is the wrong baseline. These council seats were last contested four years ago – with Boris Johnson in his pomp, the Tories riding high in the polls, a world-leading vaccine rollout underway and Starmer on the verge of resignation after losing the Hartlepool by-election.

There would be no real prospect of a Conservative advance on May 1 under any leader, but when it fails to materialise Badenoch can nevertheless expect the blame. However unfair, judgments like these come with the territory of political leadership. The question is whether her party will break its recent habits and hold its nerve.

• Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft