Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

2016 Pivot Counties

Analysis Pivot counties overview List of counties Historical voting patterns Historical voting analysis, 1992-2004 Demographics Reverse-Pivot Counties Voter turnout Pivot Counties by state Pivot Counties in congressional districts Pivot Counties in state legislative districts Pivot Counties and ballot measures

2018 elections analysis Pivot counties in U.S. House elections Pivot counties in state legislative elections Reverse pivot counties in U.S. House elections

Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election

Pivot Counties in the 2022 midterm elections

President Donald Trump (R) won 2,626 counties nationwide, while Hillary Clinton (D) won 487 counties. Of the 2,626 counties Trump won, Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Trump in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.45 percent. These counties are sometimes referred to as swing counties by media and political observers. The political shift in these counties could have a broad impact on elections at every level of government.

HIGHLIGHTS

The 206 counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The state with the highest percentage of Pivot Counties was Maine, where Pivot Counties made up 50 percent of the state's total counties.

These 206 counties cast 7.5 million votes in 2016, which accounts for 5.5 percent of all votes cast in the election.

Between 2012 and 2016, the Democratic popular vote margin declined by 2.1 million votes. Even though these 206 counties make up only 5 percent of the total votes cast, they accounted for 51 percent of that decline.

Of these 206 counties, 57 of them voted for the eventual winner in each presidential election dating back to 2000.

A small number of these counties could be considered bellwethers in modern presidential elections. Of the 206 Pivot Counties, 22 of them (10.7 percent) have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election dating back to 1984. Among those 22 counties, two (9.0 percent) voted for the winning candidate in every election since 1960. Those two counties are Valencia County, New Mexico, and Vigo County, Indiana.

The following map displays the Pivot Counties that voted for Obama, Obama, and Trump:

The table below details the number of Pivot Counties in each state. To see a full list of Pivot Counties, click here. For more complete information on a state, click the state name.

Pivot Counties By State
State	Pivot Counties	Total Counties	Percentage of Pivot Counties	Percentage of Population in Pivot Counties
Arkansas	1	75	1.33%	0.24%
Colorado	4	64	6.25%	0.57%
Connecticut	1	8	12.50%	3.28%
Delaware	1	3	33.33%	18.26%
Florida	4	67	5.97%	6.71%
Georgia	5	159	3.14%	0.57%
Illinois	11	102	10.78%	4.52%
Indiana	5	92	5.43%	7.98%
Iowa	31	99	31.31%	26.11%
Kentucky	1	120	0.83%	0.18%
Maine	8	16	50.00%	47.08%
Michigan	12	83	14.46%	18.36%
Minnesota	19	87	21.84%	9.97%
Mississippi	2	82	2.44%	3.09%
Montana	3	56	5.36%	3.37%
Nebraska	1	93	1.08%	0.37%
New Hampshire	3	10	30.00%	36.20%
New Jersey	2	21	9.52%	4.00%
New Mexico	3	33	9.09%	4.54%
New York	18	62	29.03%	19.37%
North Carolina	6	100	6.00%	3.18%
North Dakota	4	53	7.55%	2.56%
Ohio	9	88	10.23%	13.95%
Oregon	2	36	5.56%	1.91%
Pennsylvania	3	67	4.48%	7.05%
Rhode Island	1	5	20.00%	15.69%
South Carolina	5	46	10.87%	2.50%
South Dakota	5	66	7.58%	3.31%
Tennessee	1	95	1.05%	0.41%
Texas	1	254	0.39%	0.97%
Vermont	1	14	7.14%	0.99%
Virginia	5	133	3.76%	3.95%
Washington	5	39	12.82%	4.74%
Wisconsin	23	72	31.94%	17.35%

Raw data

The following table details the last three presidential votes with figures for national vote totals, totals in just the Pivot Counties, and the difference between those two figures.

List of Pivot Counties

Counties Won By Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	State	Trump Margin of Victory in 2016	Obama Margin of Victory in 2012	Obama Margin of Victory in 2008
Woodruff County, Arkansas	Arkansas	8.91%	4.21%	7.46%
Conejos County, Colorado	Colorado	3.56%	9.22%	12.93%
Huerfano County, Colorado	Colorado	6.61%	8.27%	11.23%
Las Animas County, Colorado	Colorado	15.60%	2.65%	7.04%
Pueblo County, Colorado	Colorado	0.50%	13.99%	14.97%
Windham County, Connecticut	Connecticut	7.78%	13.28%	14.68%
Kent County, Delaware	Delaware	4.87%	4.94%	9.81%
Jefferson County, Florida	Florida	5.06%	1.75%	3.66%
Monroe County, Florida	Florida	6.82%	0.44%	4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida	Florida	1.11%	5.65%	8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida	Florida	2.40%	7.86%	12.12%
Baker County, Georgia	Georgia	8.68%	0.57%	1.07%
Dooly County, Georgia	Georgia	2.05%	6.98%	3.53%
Peach County, Georgia	Georgia	2.91%	7.48%	6.75%
Quitman County, Georgia	Georgia	10.92%	9.04%	7.90%
Twiggs County, Georgia	Georgia	1.58%	8.64%	6.97%
Alexander County, Illinois	Illinois	8.30%	13.65%	12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois	Illinois	26.69%	1.49%	4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois	Illinois	14.93%	11.04%	21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois	Illinois	28.43%	12.25%	17.67%
Henry County, Illinois	Illinois	20.99%	3.08%	7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois	Illinois	14.64%	1.16%	10.49%
Knox County, Illinois	Illinois	2.91%	17.37%	19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois	Illinois	20.36%	7.39%	11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois	Illinois	19.92%	1.82%	15.64%
Warren County, Illinois	Illinois	16.50%	5.47%	8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois	Illinois	6.18%	17.02%	17.56%
Delaware County, Indiana	Indiana	13.43%	3.12%	14.98%
LaPorte County, Indiana	Indiana	6.33%	12.57%	22.04%
Perry County, Indiana	Indiana	18.55%	11.59%	22.84%
Porter County, Indiana	Indiana	6.59%	3.90%	7.20%
Vigo County, Indiana	Indiana	14.97%	0.86%	15.83%
Allamakee County, Iowa	Iowa	24.15%	4.17%	14.25%
Boone County, Iowa	Iowa	13.69%	6.64%	7.63%
Bremer County, Iowa	Iowa	13.68%	2.68%	9.31%
Buchanan County, Iowa	Iowa	15.02%	13.87%	18.48%
Cedar County, Iowa	Iowa	17.78%	4.59%	9.64%
Cerro Gordo County, Iowa	Iowa	7.66%	13.38%	20.83%
Chickasaw County, Iowa	Iowa	22.94%	11.07%	20.74%
Clarke County, Iowa	Iowa	28.02%	1.47%	2.25%
Clayton County, Iowa	Iowa	22.78%	7.03%	17.17%
Clinton County, Iowa	Iowa	5.12%	22.84%	23.03%
Des Moines County, Iowa	Iowa	6.89%	18.41%	23.04%
Dubuque County, Iowa	Iowa	1.23%	14.71%	20.77%
Fayette County, Iowa	Iowa	19.36%	11.96%	16.60%
Floyd County, Iowa	Iowa	14.84%	14.63%	21.88%
Howard County, Iowa	Iowa	20.49%	20.95%	25.78%
Jackson County, Iowa	Iowa	19.27%	16.89%	24.39%
Jasper County, Iowa	Iowa	18.13%	7.07%	7.50%
Jefferson County, Iowa	Iowa	0.47%	15.97%	20.23%
Jones County, Iowa	Iowa	19.08%	7.78%	10.40%
Lee County, Iowa	Iowa	16.02%	15.49%	16.01%
Louisa County, Iowa	Iowa	28.37%	0.64%	4.25%
Marshall County, Iowa	Iowa	8.31%	9.36%	9.35%
Mitchell County, Iowa	Iowa	24.04%	3.37%	12.31%
Muscatine County, Iowa	Iowa	6.26%	15.88%	15.64%
Poweshiek County, Iowa	Iowa	6.53%	9.35%	11.75%
Tama County, Iowa	Iowa	20.28%	7.43%	12.19%
Union County, Iowa	Iowa	27.49%	3.86%	3.70%
Wapello County, Iowa	Iowa	20.60%	11.88%	13.53%
Webster County, Iowa	Iowa	21.52%	5.84%	8.51%
Winneshiek County, Iowa	Iowa	0.79%	14.74%	22.65%
Worth County, Iowa	Iowa	21.68%	14.53%	22.42%
Elliott County, Kentucky	Kentucky	44.13%	2.50%	25.17%
Androscoggin County, Maine	Maine	9.38%	12.78%	15.22%
Aroostook County, Maine	Maine	17.19%	7.62%	9.58%
Franklin County, Maine	Maine	5.47%	18.41%	20.29%
Kennebec County, Maine	Maine	3.58%	13.46%	14.78%
Oxford County, Maine	Maine	12.94%	14.73%	16.04%
Penobscot County, Maine	Maine	10.91%	2.93%	5.12%
Somerset County, Maine	Maine	22.67%	1.68%	5.70%
Washington County, Maine	Maine	18.44%	1.60%	1.01%
Bay County, Michigan	Michigan	12.55%	5.56%	15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan	Michigan	12.46%	1.60%	9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan	Michigan	4.72%	3.13%	8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan	Michigan	14.80%	8.10%	17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan	Michigan	3.66%	9.28%	19.26%
Lake County, Michigan	Michigan	22.77%	5.01%	12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan	Michigan	11.53%	3.99%	8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan	Michigan	15.29%	5.93%	13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan	Michigan	21.97%	0.98%	4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan	Michigan	1.13%	11.89%	17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan	Michigan	19.59%	3.67%	8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan	Michigan	13.92%	0.45%	8.78%
Beltrami County, Minnesota	Minnesota	9.72%	9.89%	10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota	Minnesota	3.69%	9.48%	12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota	Minnesota	28.70%	1.87%	5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota	Minnesota	1.95%	7.92%	16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota	Minnesota	21.70%	7.34%	8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota	Minnesota	17.24%	14.11%	17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota	Minnesota	13.87%	3.16%	10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota	Minnesota	16.35%	9.83%	12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota	Minnesota	22.05%	6.03%	18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota	Minnesota	19.85%	9.45%	10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota	Minnesota	25.60%	0.90%	5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota	Minnesota	2.92%	18.56%	25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota	Minnesota	7.82%	22.61%	23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota	Minnesota	3.04%	7.83%	10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota	Minnesota	13.34%	10.79%	26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota	Minnesota	3.06%	8.27%	11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota	Minnesota	25.57%	9.83%	13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota	Minnesota	23.30%	4.44%	5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota	Minnesota	2.90%	12.85%	19.09%
Chickasaw County, Mississippi	Mississippi	6.06%	4.52%	2.13%
Panola County, Mississippi	Mississippi	0.12%	8.62%	6.52%
Blaine County, Montana	Montana	2.46%	15.32%	19.24%
Hill County, Montana	Montana	17.18%	3.50%	12.21%
Roosevelt County, Montana	Montana	6.49%	15.58%	26.27%
Thurston County, Nebraska	Nebraska	5.94%	13.91%	6.96%
Coos County, New Hampshire	New Hampshire	8.89%	17.54%	18.19%
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire	New Hampshire	0.20%	1.12%	3.73%
Sullivan County, New Hampshire	New Hampshire	2.58%	13.27%	17.93%
Gloucester County, New Jersey	New Jersey	0.48%	10.77%	12.16%
Salem County, New Jersey	New Jersey	15.00%	1.31%	3.92%
Colfax County, New Mexico	New Mexico	8.55%	2.24%	10.73%
Hidalgo County, New Mexico	New Mexico	6.73%	4.96%	2.92%
Valencia County, New Mexico	New Mexico	8.60%	2.47%	7.72%
Broome County, New York	New York	2.01%	5.31%	8.02%
Cayuga County, New York	New York	11.64%	11.40%	8.48%
Cortland County, New York	New York	5.58%	9.11%	9.96%
Essex County, New York	New York	1.14%	18.77%	13.32%
Franklin County, New York	New York	5.45%	26.07%	22.23%
Madison County, New York	New York	14.20%	0.89%	0.87%
Niagara County, New York	New York	17.75%	0.84%	1.00%
Orange County, New York	New York	5.50%	5.65%	4.13%
Oswego County, New York	New York	21.99%	7.93%	2.44%
Otsego County, New York	New York	11.13%	2.72%	5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York	New York	1.41%	12.19%	9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York	New York	8.82%	16.71%	16.33%
Saratoga County, New York	New York	3.21%	2.44%	3.40%
Seneca County, New York	New York	11.01%	9.08%	2.60%
Suffolk County, New York	New York	6.84%	3.69%	5.99%
Sullivan County, New York	New York	11.23%	9.02%	9.46%
Warren County, New York	New York	8.47%	2.32%	2.64%
Washington County, New York	New York	18.40%	1.90%	0.81%
Bladen County, North Carolina	North Carolina	9.39%	1.97%	2.07%
Gates County, North Carolina	North Carolina	9.07%	4.11%	5.22%
Granville County, North Carolina	North Carolina	2.49%	4.54%	6.58%
Martin County, North Carolina	North Carolina	0.43%	4.65%	4.64%
Richmond County, North Carolina	North Carolina	9.74%	2.95%	1.50%
Robeson County, North Carolina	North Carolina	4.27%	17.41%	13.78%
Benson County, North Dakota	North Dakota	4.33%	17.01%	33.53%
Ransom County, North Dakota	North Dakota	15.77%	13.77%	15.33%
Sargent County, North Dakota	North Dakota	19.73%	9.77%	17.49%
Steele County, North Dakota	North Dakota	17.72%	1.92%	20.35%
Ashtabula County, Ohio	Ohio	18.80%	12.78%	13.54%
Erie County, Ohio	Ohio	9.48%	12.29%	13.86%
Montgomery County, Ohio	Ohio	0.73%	4.62%	6.22%
Ottawa County, Ohio	Ohio	19.51%	4.30%	6.24%
Portage County, Ohio	Ohio	9.87%	5.52%	8.99%
Sandusky County, Ohio	Ohio	22.58%	2.71%	4.64%
Stark County, Ohio	Ohio	17.17%	0.47%	5.46%
Trumbull County, Ohio	Ohio	6.22%	23.00%	22.43%
Wood County, Ohio	Ohio	7.99%	4.84%	7.13%
Columbia County, Oregon	Oregon	11.46%	5.16%	12.02%
Tillamook County, Oregon	Oregon	5.58%	4.86%	9.89%
Erie County, Pennsylvania	Pennsylvania	1.56%	16.03%	19.88%
Luzerne County, Pennsylvania	Pennsylvania	19.31%	4.81%	8.41%
Northampton County, Pennsylvania	Pennsylvania	3.78%	4.71%	12.30%
Kent County, Rhode Island	Rhode Island	0.67%	17.74%	17.40%
Barnwell County, South Carolina	South Carolina	5.16%	5.33%	1.65%
Calhoun County, South Carolina	South Carolina	2.83%	4.31%	3.55%
Chester County, South Carolina	South Carolina	4.83%	10.58%	8.30%
Colleton County, South Carolina	South Carolina	8.49%	0.19%	0.53%
McCormick County, South Carolina	South Carolina	3.32%	3.60%	6.08%
Corson County, South Dakota	South Dakota	4.51%	11.08%	21.48%
Day County, South Dakota	South Dakota	23.77%	6.16%	12.89%
Marshall County, South Dakota	South Dakota	15.51%	8.66%	16.48%
Roberts County, South Dakota	South Dakota	15.53%	9.84%	19.64%
Ziebach County, South Dakota	South Dakota	1.96%	16.43%	27.16%
Hardeman County, Tennessee	Tennessee	7.92%	5.91%	6.18%
Jefferson County, Texas	Texas	0.48%	1.61%	2.25%
Essex County, Vermont	Vermont	16.65%	13.40%	14.48%
Buckingham County, Virginia	Virginia	11.28%	2.43%	0.87%
Caroline County, Virginia	Virginia	5.02%	8.24%	11.97%
Essex County, Virginia	Virginia	2.14%	7.30%	10.35%
Nelson County, Virginia	Virginia	5.59%	2.72%	9.15%
Westmoreland County, Virginia	Virginia	7.14%	6.95%	10.24%
Clallam County, Washington	Washington	2.76%	0.38%	3.30%
Cowlitz County, Washington	Washington	13.32%	4.44%	11.15%
Grays Harbor County, Washington	Washington	6.99%	14.11%	14.56%
Mason County, Washington	Washington	5.81%	7.09%	8.66%
Pacific County, Washington	Washington	6.74%	11.52%	14.07%
Adams County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	21.92%	8.73%	18.35%
Buffalo County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	21.82%	2.93%	14.66%
Columbia County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	2.14%	13.58%	15.26%
Crawford County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	5.40%	19.98%	27.03%
Door County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	3.22%	6.99%	17.33%
Dunn County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	11.09%	4.97%	14.95%
Forest County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	26.58%	5.44%	15.16%
Grant County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	9.43%	13.77%	23.88%
Jackson County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	11.74%	15.01%	21.84%
Juneau County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	26.05%	7.03%	9.00%
Kenosha County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	0.31%	12.23%	18.06%
Lafayette County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	8.99%	15.37%	22.32%
Lincoln County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	20.60%	0.71%	12.48%
Marquette County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	24.09%	0.27%	5.28%
Pepin County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	23.08%	2.22%	12.89%
Price County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	25.00%	0.04%	13.40%
Racine County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	4.28%	3.54%	7.41%
Richland County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	5.50%	16.13%	20.63%
Sauk County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	0.35%	18.47%	23.04%
Sawyer County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	18.41%	0.49%	6.23%
Trempealeau County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	12.64%	14.08%	26.39%
Vernon County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	4.43%	14.73%	22.00%
Winnebago County, Wisconsin	Wisconsin	7.34%	3.73%	11.66%
Average		11.45%	8.22%	12.29%
Median		9.41%	7.32%	11.94%

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties: How Obama-Obama-Trump counties voted in presidential elections since 1992
• Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
• Presidential election, 2016
• Presidential election, 2020