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MOST RECENT ARTICLES FROM HAMISH MCRAE
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HAMISH MCRAE: Bear markets are a familiar beast
19/04/25 08:50
It is time to reflect, and the long weekend gives us a chance to do so. We all need respite from the chaos, for this is not, from an economic or financial perspective, a joyful Eastertide at all. So let's step back and focus on the things we know, or at least can reasonably expect, to happen in the weeks ahead. Common sense will prevail, and growth and trade will pick themselves up, dust themselves down - and get back to business next year....read
HAMISH MCRAE: Big money is pushing back at Donald Trump - but it's not in control yet
12/04/25 08:50The most important long-term interest rate in the world is the yield on ten-year US Treasury notes. On Monday it opened at about 4%, but by Friday it had pushed above 4.5%.
Investors must put their tin hats on, says HAMISH MCRAE
05/04/25 08:50Whisper it low, but the UK may end up doing quite well out of this tariff war. Fingers crossed.
Beware the spectre of inflation: The 2% target is not credible: HAMISH MCRAE
29/03/25 09:50My own view, for what it's worth, is that UK equities remain a decent buy. I am sure inflation will be even higher than official forecasts. Sorry, but forewarned is forearmed.
The two golden money rules to learn from the 1970s: HAMISH MCRAE
22/03/25 09:50For the calm-headed there are still ways of building and preserving wealth. Hold down your taxes and buy things that will preserve value. Not easy, but got to be done.
It's time for Chancellor to come clean on tax, says HAMISH MCRAE
15/03/25 09:50There are many ways in which we can cut our tax bills. And maybe we should just try to spend less.
Donald Trump's power will be contained by financial markets, says HAMISH MCRAE
08/03/25 09:50There is a pattern emerging in which Trump announces tariffs, the markets plunge, and the Donald retreats.
Can anything stop Donald Trump? The markets can, says HAMISH MCRAE
01/03/25 09:50Disruption makes for great television. But it also carries economic costs, and we will see many more of those in the months ahead.
HAMISH MCRAE: This is the calm before the Trump storm
22/02/25 09:50When? Gosh, sorry not to be more precise, but somewhere between six months and two years.
The public sector just isn't working: We are worse off than in 1997, says HAMISH MCRAE
15/02/25 09:50Chancellor Rachel Reeves is in a jam. But there are two ways of tackling such a deep-rooted problem.
Inflation is here to stay and that should spur us on to sort out our own finances, says HAMISH MCRAE
08/02/25 09:50The people who run the show are insulated from inflation. So if it goes up to 3, 4 or 5 per cent, that's all right. They can say their actions are 'supporting the economy' or some such guff.
HAMISH MCRAE: Forget tech, Footsie is on a roll!
01/02/25 09:50There's a simple way of explaining what is happening, a more complex one, and a worry.
HAMISH MCRAE: Bitcoin bubble can only burst
25/01/25 09:50It could carry on for a while yet, with the trigger for the next downturn being a wider retreat on the markets.
Will Reeves change her dismal tune on the UK economy in Davos? HAMISH MCRAE
18/01/25 09:50The World Economic Forum is where the world's leaders gather and converse about the future of the world economy.
HAMISH MCRAE: Don't panic, that's Labour's job
11/01/25 09:50When a Cabinet Minister tells people they should not be worried by what is happening on the financial markets, you know the Government is really scared. It should be.
Will the US stock market's bull run continue, or is it facing a Trump bust? HAMISH MCRAE
04/01/25 09:51There are certainly concerns about Donald Trump's proposed tariffs, but I am less worried about these than three other features.
HAMISH MCRAE: Investors should expect some big bumps in 2025
28/12/24 09:50Anyone peering into next year has to try to answer two questions. One is, will the UK avoid recession? The other is, when and how will the US boom end?
Brace for rougher times ahead - and hearing a lot more about recession: HAMISH MCRAE
21/12/24 09:51Although I have not yet seen any forecasts of this, I don't think we should rule out the possibility that there will be a recession next year.
HAMISH MCRAE: UK can benefit from India's economic take-off
14/12/24 09:50It is hard to see any set of circumstances whereby it won't become the world's third-largest, after the US and China, by 2030.
HAMISH MCRAE: Bitcoin topping $100k is a warning markets have become frothy
07/12/24 09:50Behind bitcoin's surge is the strong performance of financial assets more generally - but there is a fine line between a boom and a bubble.
Britain must cosy up to Donald Trump, says HAMISH MCRAE
30/11/24 09:50The task for our new Business Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, is to use the fact that we are not part of the EU to our advantage. How can he do so?
HAMISH MCRAE: Roaring Twenties may fizzle out for investors
23/11/24 09:51There have been five years of strong equity markets, but what are the prospects for the second half of the decade?
HAMISH MCRAE: Scrap National Insurance for the golden oldies
16/11/24 09:52If the Chancellor wants to keep older people in paid work, and paying tax, she will be pushing at an open door.
Britain's economy may do better from Trump 2.0 than most people think: HAMISH MCRAE
09/11/24 09:50Let's step back from all the politics and try to figure out what Donald Trump's victory really means for our economy here.
Do NOT bet against America: HAMISH McRAE says investors must not lose faith whatever the election result
04/11/24 10:02Cross your fingers that the American electors will at least deliver a clear choice for their president - whatever that choice may be.
HAMISH MCRAE: How Chancellor's Budget backfired
02/11/24 09:51It will take a few weeks for people, both individually and as managers, to work out what to do.
Trump victory would be good for shares - but bad for bonds, says HAMISH MCRAE
26/10/24 10:00Markets here are nervous about the Budget - but the outcome of the US election is more important for Britons.
Labour's economic plans risk creating £80bn black hole... and cutting GDP
19/10/24 08:51The Growth Commission calculates that the Government's economic policies will cut national output by nearly 9% by the end of the decade.
Inflation may nudge up... and governments everywhere rather like it, says HAMISH MCRAE
19/10/24 08:51Inflation cuts the real value of public debt and lets taxation rise by stealth. We are seeing the latter here as tax bands are frozen.
HAMISH MCRAE: We all need nerves of steel over US shares
12/10/24 08:51Somewhere out in the future, one or other is in store. What can we say about that?
Should we follow France's lead and tax the rich more? HAMISH MCRAE
05/10/24 09:00The new French Prime Minister, Michel Barnier has confirmed rumours of higher taxes in France - but could we follow suit?
Bonds back in the driving seat: Inflation misery means ultra-loose monetary policies won't happen again soon, says HAMISH MCRAE
28/09/24 09:00First, we had stuff about a black hole in the nation's finances. Then, we had Rachel Reeves at the party conference saying everything would get better.
China is driving a new gold rush - keep some savings in bullion, says HAMISH MCRAE
21/09/24 08:51Since 1913, when a pound was a gold sovereign, prices have gone up nearly 100-fold - the Bank of England has a nifty inflation calculator.
HAMISH MCRAE: Mario Draghi's warning to a listless EU
14/09/24 08:50Draghi was asked by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, to write a report on The Future of European Competitiveness.
High-flying markets are jittery and a tumble will hit UK investors too, says HAMISH MCRAE
07/09/24 09:01To judge by the anguished reports from market commentators, the US financial community was waiting with bated breath on Friday for the non-farm payroll figures.
He is turning 94 but it STILL feels right to follow Warren Buffett, says HAMISH MCRAE
31/08/24 08:50Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is looked up to as an investing guru by millions, so even his eyebrow-raising decision to sell Apple shares could be a wise one.
HAMISH MCRAE: Pound shrugs off Labour gloom over economy
31/08/24 08:50it makes sense for investors to put a bit of money into Britain - as long as they don't have to pay our taxes - and that is pushing up sterling.
Will a Fed cut to interest rates boost stock markets? HAMISH MCRAE
24/08/24 09:00The late August bank holiday weekend is always a good time to reflect on what has happened through the summer, and more important, figure out what's to come.
HAMISH MCRAE: Silly to predict a Kamala economic crash
17/08/24 08:51I am not predicting a Kamala Crash, or indeed a Donald one, but I do expect confidence to be become frayed in the weeks ahead.
How to protect your investments from a recession in America as the world braces amid growing fears of 'Kamala Crash'
14/08/24 12:09Fears of a US recession are upsetting financial markets around the world. But with the battle for the White House in full spate, is the world's biggest economy really heading for a slump?
US recession fears grip the markets: But is the world's biggest economy really heading for a slump?
13/08/24 09:29On Wall Street and in the City, many are worried that the US economy may fall into recession and the financial markets are running scared.
HAMISH MCRAE: Is Kamalanomics a Trump card in election race?
10/08/24 08:50Kamalanomics would be a move to a more European form of government, while Trumponomics would be the reverse. Which way will voters swing?
Curb your enthusiasm on tax rises, Rachel Reeves - the UK economy is doing OK, says HAMISH MCRAE
04/08/24 10:48The country's economic position is improving so swiftly that there will probably be no need to raise taxes at all in October.
HAMISH MCRAE: Investors show healthy skepticism on AI as tech share prices dip
27/07/24 08:52All bubbles burst, so the question vexing investors is whether the big tech stock jitters of the past few days are harbingers of a wider reassessment of investment strategy.
Have you got a millionaire next door? Britain's rapid rise in wealth means you could, says HAMISH MCRAE
13/07/24 09:01Who wants to be a millionaire? Quite a lot of us, according to the latest Global Wealth Report from the Swiss bank UBS.
HAMISH MCRAE: Pray for a productive five years under Labour
06/07/24 08:51What are the big forces that will dominate the world economy for the rest of this decade - and that this new Government will have to tackle?
Stay optimistic...despite Labour, says HAMISH MCRAE
29/06/24 08:50Keir Starmer has committed Labour to getting economic growth back to its pre-2008 long-term trend of 2.5 per cent, but how?
Bet on suppliers in AI gold rush, says HAMISH MCRAE
22/06/24 09:00The extraordinary surge in the share price of Nvidia, making it for a few hours the most valuable company in the world, is both a symbol and a warning.
US stocks are intelligent option, says HAMISH MCRAE
15/06/24 08:50Time and time again, it is American enterprise that comes up with some new technology that will dominate the world - as it is doing right now.
Never mind the election - cut interest rates! says HAMISH MCRAE
08/06/24 08:50Inflation for May is expected to fall to 2 per cent, or close to it, and in April, at 2.3 per cent, was already below the Eurozone's latest figure, 2.6 per cent.
Spare us politicians' quick fixes: We need more competence and less ideology says HAMISH MCRAE
01/06/24 09:01Politics makes the headlines, but it is interest rates that shift the economics. That's the conclusion to be drawn from the past few days.
HAMISH MCRAE: The next Government must narrow living standards gap with the US
25/05/24 09:00Let's step back from the politics, of which there will be more than enough in coming weeks, and focus on the economic inheritance of the next Government.
How can the UK catch back up with the US? HAMISH MCRAE
18/05/24 08:50To transform the whole investment landscape will not simply take a revaluation of the existing enterprises, but rather the creation of more new ones.
FTSE 100 hits an all-time high - but remember the stock market adage of 'sell in May and go away' says HAMISH MCRAE
11/05/24 08:50It was another cracker of a week. The FTSE 100 rose to another all-time high. The Bank signalled a rate cut on the horizon. And growth in the first quarter. What's going on?
Older workers will sustain growth, says HAMISH MCRAE: We must incentivise them to stay, like Japan
04/05/24 08:50If we are to ease the tax burden on the young, we have to make work more attractive for the old. Simple as that.
It's 'high and buy' from FTSE 100: The more the index rises the greater the urge to invest, says HAMISH MCRAE
27/04/24 08:51We need to build on this incipient recovery in UK equity prices so that more people get a share of the action.
Should you invest in gold and safe havens in a global crisis? HAMISH MCRAE
21/04/24 10:27The conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in the gold price in recent weeks, for the metal has long been the classic place to put savings at a moment like this. But gold is an unsatisfactory investment.
Follow the Goldman Sachs brick road: Bank must be right to cash in some of its tech stocks, says HAMISH MCRAE
13/04/24 08:50We have been expecting a shift from big-tech America to value stocks on both sides of the Atlantic. That seems to be happening at last.
The fear behind gold's new surge: West faces considerable political and social unrest, says HAMISH MCRAE
06/04/24 08:50Movements in the gold price are a good indicator of fear, not just about inflation, but also about the ability of society to hold together.
I hope politicians realise how much damage they can do, says HAMISH MCRAE: Global trade is not a zero-sum game, our prosperity depends on it
30/03/24 09:50We don't think of the complexity of supply chains, until an event such as the Baltimore harbour accident reminds us how much we rely on goods shipped around the world.
The next government will get a better economic inheritance than the gloomy forecasts suggest, says HAMISH MCRAE
23/03/24 09:50My rather ambitious year-end predictions that, in 2024, the Footsie would reach 8,500 and the pound touch $1.40 might not look so hairy after all.
HAMISH MCRAE asks: How might we in the UK benefit from a Donald Trump presidency?
16/03/24 09:52We don't know what will happen in the November election. But we can begin to glimpse what it might mean for financial markets.
These are the British economy's four pillars of strength: HAMISH MCRAE
09/03/24 09:52It's a case of Four Weddings And A Funeral. There is a big issue to be tackled. So let's get the funeral out of the way. It's productivity.
HAMISH MCRAE: Budget is chance to right a pension wrong
02/03/24 09:51Everyone saving for their old age, especially Generation Z, will be deeply grateful.
HAMISH MCRAE: Sun finally rises over Nikkei and there will eventually be a similar revaluation here
24/02/24 09:51I think we are in much the same situation as Japan was 10 or 15 years ago when it was fashionable to talk the country down.
HAMISH MCRAE: Jeremy Hunt may cut tax in the Budget... but he can't cut corners
17/02/24 09:51Whatever a government does on taxes, its overall plans have to be credible to the international financial markets.
HAMISH MCRAE: Not all together in electric dreams over switch from oil and gas
10/02/24 09:50When Mr Bean, the world's largest car maker and the top brass at OPEC all agree on something the rest of us should sit up and take notice.
Brown's pension tax raid was the most idiotic decision I can recall, says HAMISH MCRAE
03/02/24 09:50Reverse Brown's move. It would cost hardly anything. Jeremy Hunt could do it, and Rachel Reeves could show Labour would be on the side of pensioners by supporting it.
Want to know if the UK economy will bounce back? Watch these figures, says HAMISH MCRAE
28/01/24 10:57I expect the first fall in interest rates in the UK to come in May, says Hamish McRae. But we could also see an economic uplift in time for the summer holidays.
HAMISH MCRAE: Price rise fears are inflated
20/01/24 09:51Imagine what might happen here in the UK if inflation is back to 2 per cent in April. That is a realistic possibility.
HAMISH MCRAE: We are on a bumpy path to cheap money
13/01/24 09:50What we have to recognise is that we are in the early stages of the transition from very low interest rates to normal ones.
HAMISH MCRAE: Backing Britain pays dividends
06/01/24 09:51The corporate sector can ride out any resurgence in inflation so can keep paying dividends. And if you want dividends the best place is the UK.
House prices will rise, Apple will fall - HAMISH MCRAE'S 2024 predictions
30/12/23 09:50I think reason and value are still good guides for long-term investors. And, of course, you have to pay attention to the fashion of the day.
From inflation to interest rates, reasons to be joyful amid the gloom: HAMISH MCRAE
23/12/23 10:01There is growing evidence that the UK economy is at some sort of turning point, and as the year ahead progresses we will all become more conscious of the positives and less ground down by the rest.
HAMISH MCRAE: Federal Reserve's festive gift for Chancellor
16/12/23 09:51The Fed's projections for its interest rates next year - has galvanised the markets, and that has profound implications for all of us.
HAMISH MCRAE: It's time for a Santa rally as markets sniff turning point in inflation
09/12/23 09:51We haven't seen much seasonal cheer on the London Stock Exchange, but many British investors' portfolios will have been rescued by their US holdings.
HAMISH MCRAE: Patient investors CAN still win
02/12/23 09:50That Buffett/Munger mantra of investing in the best firms surely stands, and they would use dips in the market to build their stakes.
HAMISH MCRAE: My take on Chancellor's Autumn Statement box of tricks
25/11/23 09:51We will see a quite rapid expansion in demand, which, with a restricted labour supply, will put huge pressure on firms to increase productivity.
HAMISH MCRAE: Boosting long-term economic growth won't be a piece of cake
18/11/23 09:50Be aware that what the Chancellor says in his Autumn Statement will matter to us, of course. But what happens in the world will matter more.
HAMISH MCRAE: Cheer up, we're at a turning point in the economic cycle
11/11/23 09:51The combination of rising real incomes, inflation down to 2 per cent, and house prices climbing back towards their previous peak, should generate a much more positive mood than we have now.
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