With broad disruption in the equity markets in recent weeks, it's becoming increasingly challenging to find stocks that are still above upward-sloping 200-day moving averages. Not only are shares of Progressive Corp. (PGR) still trading above this key trend barometer, they appear to be following a familiar pullback pattern that could provide an ideal entry point. Back in April 2024, after a strong four months to begin the year, PGR demonstrated a classic bearish momentum divergence. This pattern of higher highs in price matched with lower peaks in momentum, highlighted with purple trendlines, suggests weakening price momentum as shares are moving higher. As the bullish trend nears an exhaustion point, price tends to peak and then reverse lower. The stock pulled back to just below $200 and ended up retesting this support level numerous times in May and June. The RSI pulled back during this period, but remained above the crucial 40 level during this consolidation period. Eventually the uptrend resumed, with a new swing high in August 2024 confirming a new bullish phase for Progressive. We observed an almost identical set of circumstances toward the end of 2024, when the price and RSI formed another bearish momentum divergence pattern at the September peak. Again, PGR pulled back to establish a new short-term support level, and the RSI remained mostly above the crucial 40 level during the consolidation phase. Finally, a break to new highs in February 2025 signaled a resumption of the uptrend phase. We've now identified yet another bearish momentum divergence at the March 2025 peak, followed by a pullback to short-term support around $250. If this playbook would continue as expected, we'd be looking for PGR to hold price support at this important level with RSI remaining mostly above 40. We're also noting that the 200-day moving average is in play, which should provide even more support around $250. It's often helpful to triangulate signals with other technical indicators to identify a potential agreement between disparate approaches. In this case, a quick review of the Ichimoku cloud model shows that previous pullbacks have often found support within the cloud support range. If PGR would break below cloud support but find an eventual low at the 200-day moving average around $250, a break back above the cloud could provide confirmation that a new uptrend phase is in place for this leading insurance provider. -David Keller, CMT marketmisbehavior.com Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited! DISCLOSURES: None All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
