The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is having another strong session today, continuing its impressive year-to-date move. It's now up a whopping 52% in 2025. On the long-term monthly chart, GDX has continued to extend from this major bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which it first broke out from in March. As the chart shows, if GDX continues to hold above the breakout zone near the 44 level, the measured move target near 64 will remain in play. And if that were to happen, this would place GDX within striking distance of its all-time highs from early 2011. As is clear on the chart, GDX bottomed in 2015 and has been gradually climbing back since then, forming a broad multiyear base from late 2020 through early 2025. Of course, the big breakout has been playing out as gold itself continues to surge, having first made new all-time highs in January 2024 and extending that move ever since. Thus, both gold and GDX continue to stand out, especially as so many stocks have struggled in recent weeks. There's nothing wrong with aligning ourselves with areas showing relative strength like this. However, even the strongest breakouts can become overextended in the short term. It's something to keep in mind as we manage risk and look for high-probability entries. Specifically, GDX currently is up seven straight days, gaining 25%—by far its biggest seven-day move since the Covid era — and one of the largest in its history. Again, it's up 52% thus far in 2025, which means that the last week-and-a-half of trading has accounted for HALF of that advance. If nothing else, this pace is not sustainable. This chart shows all of the prior seven-day runs of at least 20%. Most of these explosive 7-day runs occurred near major lows — the financial crisis, 2015 and, of course, during the Covid crash. What's different this time is that the huge move is happening via a breakout to new multiyear highs. Indeed, the monthly bullish formation cited above has taken a while to form, but GDX is a lot closer to its all-time highs than its 2015 low. Thus, while we still believe in that longer-term breakout, it's important to caution chasing something this extended over such a short period; even in the strongest trends, intermittent pullbacks and digestion are normal. Over the last few weeks, GDX also has outperformed gold itself (again, even as gold continues to make new all-time highs.) The question now is whether this outperformance can last more than just a few weeks/months this time. As we can see from the long-term chart, GDX has underperformed gold since the ETF's inception in 2006. This GDX/GLD relative long-term downtrend has persisted whether the two were moving higher together (through 2011 and then 2015-present) or lower in unison (2011 through 2015). So, while we expect GDX and GLD both to continue to move in the same direction long-term, the odds suggest that GLD will reclaim relative strength again soon. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited! DISCLOSURES: All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL'S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
