The megacap growth complex has been a source of downside leadership so far this year, noting Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla all fall in the bottom quintile of S & P 500 member returns year-to-date. After becoming deeply oversold in the short term, many of these laggards are likely to lead the brief relief rally already underway in the broad-based S & P 500 Index. Among the megacaps, Amazon (AMZN) catches our eye as a stock that has compelling short-term risk-reward potential. The stock appears to have found its footing in response to short-term oversold conditions after penetrating its 200-day moving average (MA), which resides near $200. We often find that the widely watched 200-day MA serves as a cushion of support, meaning that brief dips below often occur before a recovery is staged. Monday, AMZN is back above its 200-day MA on a "breakaway gap" higher, and the daily MACD indicator has a 'buy' signal to suggest short-term momentum has improved meaningfully. Both factors suggest a bigger rebound is likely over the next two weeks, at a minimum. A short-term upside objective for AMZN is the 50-day MA, near $218, which is nearly 8% above current levels. Just a trade While the short-term set-up is compelling after a steep sell-off, the monthly chart of AMZN suggests the outlook for the rest of 2025 has deteriorated. In January, AMZN flashed a monthly counter-trend 'sell' signal per Tom DeMark's TD Combo model, which supports a prolonged pause within the broader secular uptrend. The monthly MACD histogram has a made a lower high, suggesting the uptrend drawn back to the 2022 low may be losing its hold given a loss of upside momentum. The conflicting indications from the daily and monthly bar charts of AMZN suggest that a bigger relief rally should be viewed as counter-trend and likely short-lived. Counter-trend positions are inherently risky and warrant risk management via the use of a stop-loss discipline. For those with existing exposure to AMZN, we would use the bounce as an opportunity to reduce exposure in anticipation of a more difficult year for megacap stocks. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You'll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited! 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