SPC AC 260557 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period. Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward in response to this potential scenario. Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell coverage across part of this region. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z