The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell just below the 51-year average in March and taxes ranked as one of the single most important problems facing small business owners. The Uncertainty Index decreased eight points from February’s second highest reading to 96.

“The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners have scaled back expectations on sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them.”

Key findings include:

• The percentage of small business owners reporting taxes as their single most important problem rose two points from February to 18%. The number of owners reporting “Taxes” as their top small business issue has not been this high since November 2021.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, falling just below the 51-year average of 98.
• The net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell 16 points from February to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). This is the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest monthly decline since December 2020.
• The net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 11 points from February to a net 3% (seasonally adjusted). This is the third consecutive month real sales expectations declined after surging from recession levels after the election.
• The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices fell six points from February to a net 26% seasonally adjusted. This is the largest monthly decrease since December 2022, but still historically high.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 30% plan price hikes in March, up one point from February and the highest reading since March 2024.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 40% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in March, up two points from February. Of the 53% of owners hiring or trying to hire in March, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down three points from February.

Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners fell one point in March to 11%, only two points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. Seasonally adjusted, a net 38% reported raising compensation, up five points from February. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up one point from February.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in March 2025.