TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — One of the biggest potential hurdles to Casey DeSantis running for Florida governor in 2026 may have just been knocked down — for now.
For weeks, Republicans in the Florida state House of Representatives have been investigating whether Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration illegally used $10 million tied to a federal Medicaid settlement to help defeat a 2024 ballot measure legalizing recreational marijuana in the state.
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Those leading the investigation suggested that DeSantis and his top allies broke the law by transferring the money to a political organization helmed by James Uthmeier, the governor’s former chief of staff and current state attorney general, saying it represented “wire fraud and money laundering.”
One of the groups the money flowed through along the way was an organization tied to Florida’s first lady.
But the main subcommittee leading the probe abruptly said it was ending its investigation Thursday after key figures declined to offer testimony.
“The House might continue investigating in a different venue than my subcommittee,” Republican state Rep. Alex Andrade, the chairman of the subcommittee, told NBC News. “As far as my role, I have the information I need to confirm that James Uthmeier engaged in wire fraud and money laundering. I’ll be coming back next [legislative] session with proposals to address the corruption within the DeSantis administration.”
Even though Casey DeSantis has statewide recognition as Florida’s first lady, she would be something of an underdog if she were to run for governor — especially facing a Trump-backed candidate. The Hope Florida investigation simmered down significantly this week, but the scrutiny it brought to the DeSantis administration, and Casey DeSantis in particular, may continue to cast a shadow over the race.
The investigation, first reported by the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald, centered on what the DeSantis administration did with money from a $67 million settlement with Medicaid contractor Centene, which inked the deal after overbilling the state for prescription drugs. As part of that settlement, Desantis administration officials “directed” $10 million from that pot of money to the Hope Florida Foundation, the nonprofit arm of an organization led by Casey DeSantis, according to records the group had to file as part of its nonprofit status.
Of that money, $5 million was then sent to a group aligned with the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and another $5 million to a group called Save Our Society from Drugs. Those groups then sent a total of $8.5 million toward a political committee led by Uthmeier that was working to defeat the recreational marijuana amendment. It’s not clear how much of the $10 million went directly to the PAC. The ballot measure received 57% of the vote but it needed 60% to pass.
Andrade and House Republicans said the money represented an illegal use of public funds for political purposes. He requested testimony this week from Florida Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Mark Wilson and Hope Florida attorney Jeff Aaron, both of whom declined to testify before Andrade’s committee.
On Thursday morning, Andrade told reporters that the GOP-led Florida House would end its investigation, his focus on Hope Floridaconcluded after the two men declined to appear before his committee.
The Hope Florida saga is shaping up to be among the most contentious political fights for the DeSantis family as Casey DeSantis openly mulls a run against Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., who has already jumped in and been endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Casey DeSantis was the public face of the organization, which aimed to offer grants to help low-income state residents become more financially self-sufficient.
Both Ron and Casey DeSantis have said that the settlement money was a “cherry on top” — funds negotiated as part of the settlement, but that the money that went to Hope Florida was separate from the Medicaid portion of the agreement. They have argued the probe was politically motivated, and defended the program throughout the investigation, including as recently as Thursday morning.
Critics of the arrangement, however, contend that all the money should have gone back to taxpayers.
“Hope Florida is not a program. Hope Florida is an idea,” Casey DeSantis told reporters during a Thursday morning news conference. “Hope Florida is a philosophy. It is: How can we help people in need and do better legitimately? It’s not about just giving somebody a check and hoping it goes well,” the first lady said.
It’s not entirely clear what the political fallout on the governor’s race will be now that the Legislature’s investigation appears to be stalled, at least for now. There are some DeSantis allies who believe the end of the probe is helpful to her potential run, while others say that the damage has already been done.
“Can you imagine millions of dollars in ads being put behind that?” said a person supportive of a Casey DeSantis gubernatorial bid. “She has not really, in a serious way, had to answer for any of this. That’s going to change if she actually runs.”
Andrade said that there is no indication that Casey DeSantis herself broke any laws but that the entire saga is a stain on her resume.
“I don’t know if she committed any crimes, but she certainly looks incompetent at running a small charitable organization,” he said.
After Andrade announced he was ending his subcommittee’s investigation, DeSantis allies said the entire Hope Florida issue was “debunked.”
“It was clearly all a public student to get sound bites,” a DeSantis ally familiar with the governor’s thinking said.
While the Hope Florida investigation seems likely to be coming to an end, Casey DeSantis still would face an uphill battle if she were to run for governor. Not only does Donalds have Trump’s endorsement in a state he won by 13 percentage points in 2024, but he also has already raised more than $12 million and a political operation in place, something that is lacking for the DeSantis family.
The only political staffer currently working for the governor and likely political team for Casey DeSantis is Taryn Fenske, a longtime DeSantis adviser and Republican communications veteran. A handful of former DeSantis political staffers — including Ryan Tyson, who helped helm Ron DeSantis 2024 presidential race; Makenzi Mahler, a top former DeSantis fundraiser; and Alex Valdes, also a fundraiser for DeSantis — have left the operation and would not work for Casey DeSantis if she ran in 2026, three people familiar with the matter said.
“I don’t know who her team is, or who would work for her at this point,” said a person familiar with Casey DeSantis’ attempt to build a political operation. “If she runs, I assume people will come, but for the most part those who have helped the DeSantises in the past are gone.”
Casey DeSantis does continue to enjoy significant support from Florida Republicans. A February poll conducted by the University of North Florida showed 57% have a favorable opinion of the first lady, compared to 27% for Donalds.
“She likely enjoys some favorability by association as Florida’s first lady,” UNF political science professor Michael Binder said. “But most of these potential candidates suffer from a lack of recognition, some suffering more than others.”
“That said, I expect we’ll see a few of them become household names by the time the August 2026 primary rolls around,” he added.
