What to know about the 2022 midterms
- Control of the Senate is likely to come down to a handful of tight contests in states such as Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
- All 435 House seats are up for election in the midterms — but just 33 seats are rated as “toss-ups,” according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
- Candidates who have denied or questioned the results of the 2020 election are running for governor, secretary of state and attorney general — positions that play important roles in elections — in a number of states.
- As of Sunday, 22,325,793 ballots had been cast nationwide. NBC News is tracking the early vote here. Plan your vote here. Election Day is Nov. 8.
Analysis: The six types of races that will decide House control
Republicans need to pick up at least five seats to take back the House in the midterm elections, and three structural advantages have made them favorites all along: redistricting, Democratic retirements and candidate recruitment.
As the abortion issue and a renewed focus on former President Donald Trump have awakened and energized Democratic voters, the fight for the House has become increasingly competitive.
Those structural factors once looked like a small component of potential big gains for the GOP in a “red wave” scenario. Now, they look like a valuable insurance policy for Republicans in a fluid political environment, without which House control might be a toss-up.
Liz Cheney takes out ads hitting election deniers in Arizona
PHOENIX — Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., hit the TV airwaves in Arizona on Friday, putting up a $500,000 ad buy targeting Kari Lake and Mark Finchem, the Republican candidates for governor and secretary of state, respectively, who have repeatedly said they would not have certified Joe Biden’s 2020 win in the state.
The 30-second ad, shared first with NBC News, includes Cheney’s remarks in Tempe this month when she spoke to a group gathered by the McCain Institute.
“I don’t know that I have ever voted for a Democrat, but if I lived in Arizona, I absolutely would,” Cheney says.
Read the full report on the Meet the Press blog.
Law enforcement warns of conspiracy-driven violence ahead of midterms
U.S. law enforcement has circulated bulletins warning that conspiracy theorists could become violent around the midterm elections on Nov. 8.
The bulletins, obtained by NBC News, are unclassified but intended only for law enforcement.
One of the bulletins, issued Friday by the Department of Homeland Security, the FBI and the National Counterterrorism Center and marked “for official use only,” warned about domestic violent extremism, or DVE in law enforcement circles.
“We assess that election-related perceptions of fraud and DVE reactions to divisive topics will likely drive sporadic DVE plotting of violence and broader efforts to justify violence in the lead up to and following the 2022 midterm election cycle,” the bulletin said.
Text messages with misleading election info hit voters in two states
Voters in at least two states have received false information about how to vote through text messages in recent days, with little idea who’s behind them.
The secretaries of state in Kansas and New Jersey warned Monday that voters had been sent incorrect instructions about where to find their polling places. It wasn’t immediately clear how many people received the text messages.
The messages appeared to have been personally tailored, with voters getting similar texts identifying names and addresses for the voters and purported polling locations, signed by a group called “Voting Futures.”
Both states recommended that voters visit their official elections websites for authoritative voting locations: vote.nj.gov for New Jersey and VoterView for Kansas.
Unfounded conspiracy theories fuel drop box patrol in Arizona
Pro-Trump volunteers are circling at an Arizona ballot drop box, inspired at least in part by months of conspiracy-driven online discussion.
Read the full exclusive report here.
On Friday, a federal judge rejected a request for a restraining order against the group organizing the patrols.
Biden criticizes record profits at U.S. oil companies as a 'windfall of war'
President Joe Biden on Monday criticized oil companies earning record profits over the past six months for not using the money to invest more in U.S. oil production to help lower the cost of gas for consumers.
“Enough is enough,” Biden said in brief remarks at the White House.
“Oil companies’ record profits today are not because they are doing something new or innovative. Their profits are a windfall of war,” Biden said, referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. “At a time of war, any company receiving historic windfall profits like this has a responsibility to act beyond their narrow self-interest of its executive shareholders.”
The high cost of gas has been a major issue for voters heading into the midterm elections and a sticking point for the White House as it has tried to boost Biden’s approval ratings.
Biden said he would have more to say about the subject when Congress returns after Election Day.
Democrats pour money into deep blue seat in New York
Monday brought another example of Democrats desperately trying to shore up candidates in some deep blue House districts in the campaign's homestretch, a sign that the GOP is wading further into Democratic terrain in its quest to retake the majority.
House Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., booked $275,000 in TV ads starting Tuesday to give air cover to two-term Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Morelle's 25th District in upstate New York favored Joe Biden over Donald Trump by nearly 20 points in 2020.
Morelle is squaring off against La’Ron Singletary, the former Rochester police chief, who’s made rising crime a central issue in the campaign.
Democrats are also spending big to defend seats in California, Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island and other blue states.
Democrats have launched a mission to save their campaign chief
For the second time in as many election cycles, Democrats are launching an eleventh-hour rescue mission to save the very House campaign chief responsible for protecting vulnerable incumbents and preserving their fragile House majority.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee decided to spend more than $600,000 on TV ads to bolster its chairman, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, as cash-rich Republicans dumped millions into the once-sleepy race and Democrats retreated in other battleground districts around the country.
The fresh spending is on top of another $110,000 from Our Hudson, a super PAC backing Maloney as he runs in a new district based in the lower Hudson Valley that President Joe Biden won by 10 points just two years ago.
Stefanik, Zeldin to hold upstate New York rally for GOP candidates
Lee Zeldin, New York's Republican nominee for governor, is set to hold a joint rally Thursday with Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., the chair of the House Republican Conference.
The "Save Our State Rally" will be Thursday evening in Castleton-on-Hudson, a village south of Albany that's part of Stefanik's 21st Congressional District, which remains a safe Republican seat. The rest of the district covers much of upstate New York, bordering Canada and Vermont.
Other Republican candidates running in statewide races will also be featured.
Zeldin, a House member from New York's 1st District, is running to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates their race as tilting likely Democratic, but recent polls have shown it tightening.
Biden to criticize oil companies in White House speech
President Joe Biden will give a speech Monday afternoon responding to “reports over recent days of major oil companies making record-setting profits even as they refuse to help lower prices at the pump for the American people,” the White House said in an announcement.
High gas prices are a top issue for voters ahead of the midterm elections. Biden has accused oil companies of raking in record profits but not lowering prices for consumers.
The president's speech — which is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET — comes after reports last week that Exxon Mobil broke profit records in the third quarter of 2022, with Chevron almost breaking the profit record it set in the second quarter.
Mike Pence headed to Georgia to campaign with Kemp
Former Vice President Mike Pence is headed to Georgia on Tuesday to campaign with Governor Brian Kemp — making him the latest “heavyweight” to visit the state in the final stretch before Election Day.
Pence and Kemp will hold two events together, both billed as “bus tour stops” in Forsyth and Hall counties — two Republican strongholds about an hour north of downtown Atlanta.
This is the second time Pence has campaigned with Kemp in Georgia this year; he held an election-eve rally during the governor’s primary race against David Perdue (who was backed by former President Donald Trump.)
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will also join Kemp's bus tour on Thursday and Friday.
Obama brought his star power to the trail in Wisconsin, Michigan
MILWAUKEE — Barack Obama did the unthinkable in his 2008 presidential bid, turning out voters in droves to solidify a “Blue Wall,” with decisive wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Now 14 years later, Democrats are desperate to capture even a scintilla of Obama magic if they’re to hold the U.S. Senate on Nov. 8 as well as make certain governorships in battlegrounds remain in Democratic hands, even as they’re locked in one dead heat race after another.
On Saturday, the former president revved up crowds in Milwaukee — campaigning for Gov. Tony Evers and U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes — and Detroit, campaigning for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. He was part statesman and at times, part stand-up comic, knocking Republicans with slights over what he described as their extremism and contradictions.
Obama rallied in Georgia Friday, and will campaign Wednesday for the Democrats in Arizona. Read the full report from Saturday's events here.
House race ad spending has tripled since 2016
A whopping $1.3 billion has been spent on ads and reservations in House races so far this election cycle, three times the sum spent in 2016, according to data from AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.
In 2016, Democratic and Republican candidates and outside groups spent a combined $443 million on ads in House races. That jumped to $1 billion in 2018, when Democratic candidates in particular saw a surge in fundraising from grassroots donors newly energized by former President Donald Trump’s election. In 2020, nearly $1.2 billion was spent on ads in House races.
The $1.3 billion spent so far for this election cycle could still grow with one week left until Election Day. So far, Democrats have the edge over Republicans, spending $702 million on ads to the GOP’s $615 million, due in part to strong fundraising from vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
Arizona Senate and governor races tighten ahead of Obama visit, GOP poll says
A new survey from one of the nation’s top GOP pollsters shows Arizona’s Senate race is a dead heat, while the Republican candidate for governor inches slightly ahead of her Democratic rival.
Just over a week before Election Day, the polls shows Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with the support of 47% of likely voters while Republican challenger Blake Masters is backed by 46%, the poll of 800 Arizona likely voters, shared exclusively with NBC News, said.
The GOP firm of Tony Fabrizio, who is part of the Wall Street Journal’s bipartisan polling team and takes surveys for top Republicans across the country, conducted the poll last week. Its error margin is about 3.5 percentage points.
Libertarian candidate Mark Victor might play a spoiler role in the Senate race, according to the Fabrizio, Lee and Associates poll, which reflects the results of other surveys and election forecasts. He’s earning 3% support, but without him on the ballot, Masters and Kelly would be tied at 49% each.
In the race for governor, 50% of likely voters back Republican Kari Lake while support for Democrat Katie Hobbs stands at 47%. Unlike the Senate race, no third-party candidate’s name will appear on the gubernatorial ballot, making it a clear head-to-head contest.
Trump endorses New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Don Bolduc
Former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Don Bolduc in a Truth Social post last night. Trump called Bolduc a “strong and proud ‘Election Denier,’” noting that Bolduc had previously pushed the former president’s false claims of a stolen election, but distanced himself after winning the nomination.
However, Trump said Bolduc gained his endorsement after he repeated baseless claims that voters were being bused in from out of state to cast illegal votes.
Trump’s post appears to refer to Bolduc’s comments during a recent debate, in which the nominee demanded that “school buses loaded with people at the polls don’t come in and vote.”
Biden and Obama will hold joint event in Philadelphia on Saturday
President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama will hold a joint event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on Saturday evening, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News.
Biden and Obama are expected to campaign together in Pennsylvania for Senate candidate John Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro ahead of the midterm elections next week.
Election deniers advanced to November ballots in 27 states, report finds
Candidates who deny the results of the 2020 election have advanced to November ballots in statewide races for positions that will oversee, defend or certify elections in more than half of the states, according to a nonpartisan group tracking the races.
In the races in 27 states for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, at least one election-denying candidate will be on the ballot who has echoed former President Donald Trump’s continuing false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, according to a report to be published by States United Action, which has closely tracked the progress of election deniers throughout the 2022 primary season.
Obama to campaign in Arizona, Nevada this week
A spokesman for the Arizona Democratic Party confirms to NBC that former President Barack Obama will appear in Arizona on Wednesday with Democratic candidates.
He will appear in Nevada on Tuesday.
This weekend, he made appearances in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.
In final Kemp-Abrams debate, guns and abortion take center stage
In the second and final debate between Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams on Sunday, abortion, crime, the economy and the state's gun law took center stage.
The two squared off on abortion, with Kemp saying he does not support further restrictions on abortion access. He did not say definitively that he would not sign such legislation if passed by Georgia’s Republican-led Statehouse.
Abrams, meanwhile, renewed her pledge to lead a repeal of the state’s restrictive abortion law. She also doubled down on an attack she’s introduced in recent days: going after Kemp for “defending Herschel Walker,” a reference to Kemp’s refusal to comment on the allegations facing the Republican Senate candidate (saying he won’t comment on Walker’s personal life).
Other notable moments from the night include a lengthy back and forth on crime and guns, specifically Georgia’s Constitutional Carry law signed this year.
Latest NBC News polling: Sky-high interest and polarization
Less than three weeks before Election Day, voter interest has reached an all-time high for a midterm election, with a majority of registered voters saying this election is “more important” to them than past midterms.
What’s more, 80% of Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.
And two-thirds of reliable Democratic and Republican voters say they’d still support their party’s political candidate, even if that person had a moral failing that wasn’t consistent with their own values.
Democrats ramp up spending in blue districts as GOP sees red wave
From New York to California, Democrats find they have to spend big in the midterms homestretch to defend incumbents in blue House districts that President Joe Biden easily won two years ago.
The crush of last-minute spending in deep-blue states and Democratic strongholds, detailed through data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, underscores just how much the political winds have shifted in Republicans’ favor and how the GOP — buoyed by well-funded super PACs — has expanded the battlefield in the final sprint of the campaign.
