The biggest news from over the weekend was that NBC News Decision Desk projected that Democrats will maintain control of the Senate (with Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holding onto their seats).
Now, the spotlight turns to the key statewide races still undecided (like Arizona’s gubernatorial race), and to the handful of uncalled House races that will decide which party controls the chamber (the Decision Desk currently estimates a final margin of 219 GOP seats to 216 Democratic seats, but that’s with a four-seat margin-of-error, so we can’t project control yet).
The Decision Desk still hasn’t projected 19 House races — right now, Republicans are the projected winners in 211 to the Democrats’ 205. That means Republicans need to win seven of the outstanding races to clinch the House majority, while Democrats need 13.
Over the weekend, NBC News projected victories for New Mexico Democrat Gabriel Vasquez, Colorado Democrat Yadira Caraveo, Nevada Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, California Democratic Rep. Julia Brownley, Maryland Democratic Rep. David Trone, Washington Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and a few calls in safe races where ballots have been slow to count.
Here’s a look at what’s left, guided by pre-election race ratings from The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter:
Toss ups:
- AZ-1: GOP Rep. David Schweikert vs. Democrat Jevin Hodge.
- CA-13: An open seat race with Republican John Duarte vs. Democrat Adam Gray.
- CA-22: GOP Rep. David Valadao vs. Democrat Rudy Salas.
- CA-27: GOP Rep. Mike Garcia vs. Democrat Christie Smith.
- CA-47: Democratic Rep. Katie Porter vs. Republican Scott Baugh.
- CA-49: Democratic Rep. Mike Levin vs. Republican Bryan Maryott.
- ME-2: Democratic Rep. Jared Golden vs. Republican Bruce Poliquin.
- NY-22: An open seat with Democrat Francis Conole vs. Republican Brandon Williams.
- OR-6: A new district with Democrat Andrea Salinas vs. Republican Mike Erickson.
Other competitive races:
- AK-AL: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola vs. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich and Libertarian Chris Bye.
- AZ-6: An open seat with Republican Juan Ciscomani vs. Democrat Kirsten Engel.
- CA-3: An open seat with Republican Kevin Kiley vs. Democrat Kermit Jones.
- CA-9: Democratic Rep. Josh Harder vs. Republican Tom Patti.
- CA-41: GOP Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Democrat Will Rollins.
- CA-45: GOP Rep. Michelle Steel vs. Democrat Jay Chen.
- OR-5: An open seat, with Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer vs. Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner. (UPDATE: The NBC News Decision Desk projected this race for Chavez-DeRemer late Monday morning)
A surprisingly close race:
- CO-3: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert vs. Democrat Adam Frisch.
Safe seats:
- The Decision Desk hasn’t yet projected two safe seats President Biden won by more than 20 and 60 percentage points respectively in 2020, CA-21 and CA-34, as ballots continue to be counted.
