Polls released over the last 24 hours show that while the political environment appears to be improving for Democrats, races in battleground states are going to come down to the wire.
A new Fox News poll of registered voters shows Democrats have a 3-point lead in the congressional ballot (44%-41%), although that’s within the margin of error. And an AP/NORC poll released this morning showed that Biden’s approval rating has improved over the last few months, rising to 45% after sinking to a low of 36% in July.
Statewide races are still expected to be very close, especially in states Biden won narrowly in 2020, like Wisconsin. A new Marquette Law School poll of likely voters found GOP Sen. Ron Johnson at 49% to Democrat Mandela Barnes’ 48%, and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers leading Republican Tim Michels, 47% to 44%.
In Georgia, a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock ahead of Republican Herschel Walker 52% to 48%, while GOP Gov. Brian Kemp is at 50% versus Democrat Stacey Abrams’ 48%.
Pennsylvania remains a potential bright spot for Democrats. A new CBS/YouGov poll found Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman leading celebrity doctor Oz 52% to 47% among likely voters. And a new Monmouth University poll found Oz has a higher unfavorability rating. The CBS/YouGov poll also finds Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leads Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano 55% to 44%.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Florida Senate: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is backing the new 15-week abortion ban in Congress. He’s also up with two new ads criticizing Democratic Rep. Val Demings by casting her as too liberal.
Georgia Senate: Republican Herschel Walker also supports the proposed 15-week abortion ban, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
North Carolina Senate: Republican Rep. Ted Budd will appear at a rally next Friday with President Trump.
Pennsylvania Senate: Pennsylvania Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz appear to have agreed to a debate, but are continuing to squabble over the terms. In an interview with the New York Times, Fetterman stressed that he is running a “perfectly normal” campaign as he recovers from a stroke. He still struggles with some speech and hearing issues, and NBC News’ Ben Goggin reports that some “deceptively edited” videos that exaggerate Fetterman’s speech issues have hundreds of thousands of views on Twitter and TikTok.
Massachusetts Governor: Democrat Attorney General Maura Healey leads Republican Geoff Diehl in the new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC10 Boston/Telemundo poll of likely midterm voters by a margin of 52% to 26%.
New York Governor: Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin is out with a new TV ad cataloging violent attacks that occurred in the state, telling voters to “vote like your life depends on it. It just might.”
Colorado-07: FiveThirtyEight says it obtained audio that shows Republican Erik Aadland saying “we have an illegitimate government in power.”
Nevada-03: NBC News’ Sahil Kapur explores how Republican April Becker is trying to navigate the abortion issue in her race against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
