WASHINGTON — If it’s Thursday … Hurricane Ian rips across Florida, resulting in massive flooding and leaving more than two million without power. ... President Biden visits FEMA headquarters to receive a briefing on the storm. ... Biden White House plans to take executive action to help DREAMers, NBC’s Josh Lederman and Julia Ainsley report. ... Pennsylvania Senate narrows to 4-point race, per Fox News poll. ... Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., leads in the Georgia Senate contest, while GOP Gov. Brian Kemp is ahead in Georgia Governor, another Fox News poll shows. ... And the Republican nominee in Nevada Senate calls FBI “far too political,” per NBC’s Natasha Korecki.
But first: We told you that Democrats and Republicans are running two very different midterm campaigns across the country — with Democrats seizing on abortion and accusing Republicans of extremism, and with the GOP playing up inflation, immigration and crime.
And that “Tale of Two Campaigns” continues to play out over the airwaves.
Just look at Wisconsin’s toss-up Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.
“Mandela Barnes stands with ‘Defund the Police’ and supports ‘no cash bail’ that releases dangerous criminals back into our communities,” goes one TV ad by Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP Super PAC. “Barnes supports sanctuary cities and spending millions of taxpayer dollars on illegal immigrants.”
Yet here’s an ad from Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic Super PAC: “Ron Johnson supported the Supreme Court decision outlawing abortion in Wisconsin, even for victims of rape and incest, allowing doctors and nurses to be prosecuted,” a woman says to camera. “When I think about other victims and what they’re going to have to go through because of Ron Johnson — he doesn’t share our values.”
Crime and immigration vs. abortion and values.
Those are the clear stakes in this race, and the stakes both sides are setting up in races across the country — up and down the ballot.
Senate Minority Mitch McConnell all but admitted that’s the 2022 issue terrain when he spoke to reporters on Wednesday.
“The three big national issues that we’re going to be addressing here that people are most concerned about nationally, are the ones that I mentioned — inflation, crime, and open borders. That’s clearly where we’re going to be putting the focus,” McConnell said, per NBC’s Ali Vitali, Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp.
“With regard to the issue you raised [on abortion], I think every one of our candidates may have a different answer to that depending upon where they are.”
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … $13 million
That’s how much money an outside group called Coulda Been Worse, LLC is spending so far to boost Democrats in the Texas gubernatorial race, NBC’s Peder S. Schaefer reports.
The opaque group’s name is a nod to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s comments after the Uvalde school shooting in May. It’s already spent more than $7 million on television ads criticizing Abbott and has millions more booked — and the group continues to book airtime (it booked another $1.7 million on Wednesday and launched a new ad tying Abbott to the state’s power grid failure last year), per AdImpact.
Despite the massive influx from the dark-money group, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott remains extremely well funded — his campaign has another $14.8 million booked on ads through Election Day.
Read more about the dynamics in this increasingly expensive race on the Meet the Press Blog.
Other numbers to know:
2.4 million: The estimated number of Florida customers who do not have power as of Thursday morning as Hurricane Ian hits the state.
4: The number of regions of Ukraine that Russia plans to formally annex in a new escalation of the war.
More than 600,000: The number of people protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which the White House is preparing to protect should a court strike it down, NBC News’ Josh Lederman and Julia Ainsley report.
$8 billion: How much money Biden announced his administration will commit, in private and public funds, in an effort to end hunger by 2030.
61: The number of home runs New York Yankee Aaron Judge has hit this season, tying an American League record.
Midterm roundup: Lots of new midterm polls
It’s less than six weeks until Election Day, and there are several new polls out from key midterm states.
A new Fox News poll of Georgia has Sen. Raphael Warnock at 46% among registered voters and GOP challenger Herschel Walker at 41%.
In the gubernatorial race, it’s incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp at 50% and Democrat Stacey Abrams at 43%.
In Arizona, a Marist poll of registered voters has Sen. Mark Kelly at 51% and GOP challenger at 41%, while in the state’s gubernatorial race it’s Republican Kari Lake at 46% and Democrat Katie Hobbs at 45%.
And in Pennsylvania, Fox News has Democrat John Fetterman at 45% among registered voters and Republican Mehmet Oz at 41%. Also, a Franklin and Marshall College poll of the state shows a similar margin — Fetterman at 45% and Oz at 42%.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Ohio Senate: Donald Trump Jr. will join J.D. Vance for three campaign stops next week, The Hill reports. And a Spectrum News/Siena College poll found Democratic Tim Ryan at 46% and Vance at 43%.
Nevada Senate: After a campaign event Wednesday, Republican Adam Laxalt declined to support the FBI, telling NBC News’ Natasha Korecki that the agency “is far too political right now.” The comments came after Laxalt held an event with former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
Pennsylvania Senate: The Washington Post reports that New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman writes in her book that former President Trump told confidantes he wanted candidates like Pennsylvania Republican Mehmet Oz to win their races ahead of potential challenges to the 2024 election or future impeachments.
Michigan Governor: While Trump is traveling to Michigan on Saturday to boost GOP gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, NBC News’ Henry Gomez reports that national Republicans have largely abandoned her, leaving Dixon vastly outspent on the airwaves.
Nevada Governor: Republican nominee and Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo changed his stance on whether he would repeal an executive order protecting women from prosecution for seeking abortion services, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported Wednesday.
Pennsylvania Governor: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Mastriano’s struggling gubernatorial campaign is closing out the race with “40 days of fasting and prayer.”
California-47: Club for Growth Action is booking its first ad buy in this district, per AdImpact, of $1.2 million, where Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is facing former GOP Assemblyman Scott Baugh.
Ohio-09: New documents disclosed by the Associated Press show that Republican J.R. Majewski was demoted for drunk driving while serving in Japan. Majewski tweeted a letter appearing to show he was cited for driving with a BAC between 0.05%-0.08%.
Ad watch: Pushing back against 'defund the police'
Ohio Democrat Greg Landsman is out with a new ad pushing back on another ad funded by the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, a group aligned with Republican House leadership.
Landsman’s new ad features law enforcement officers pushing back on the notion that Landsman wants to defund the police.
“This ad from Congressman Chabot’s friends is just wrong,” one officer in Landsman’s ad tells viewers. Another says, “Landsman increased police funding by $20 million.”
Landsman, a Cincinnati City Councilman, is challenging GOP Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio’s 1st District, a close race that Democrats are eyeing to flip and that the non-partisan Cook Political Report rates a “Toss Up.”
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
Vice President Kamala Harris ended her Asian trip with a stop at the Demilitarized Zone dividing North and South Korea.
The Supreme Court announced that it is partially reopening to the public, allowing people to attend oral arguments.
