If it’s WEDNESDAY… President Biden, at NATO summit in Lithuania, meets with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, then delivers speech on the war in Ukraine… Iowa Republicans pass six-week abortion ban… No Labels announces Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V. (along with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman) will speak at a town hall meeting in New Hampshire next week… FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before House Judiciary Committee at 10:00 am ET, per NBC’s Ryan Nobles… And tonight at 7:00 pm ET is the Congressional Women’s Softball Game between members of Congress and the DC press corps.
But FIRST... “We love Donald Trump. But there are just too many distractions, and the other side won’t let him win.”
That’s the gist of a new ad from a group affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, which is airing in Iowa and South Carolina, and which features a voter talking about Trump.
“I love Donald Trump. I love what he did,” the voter says, adding: “He was attacked all the time and it seemed like, you know, it just seemed non-stop. The drama ... He’s got so many distractions. The constant fighting — something every day — and I’m not sure he can focus on moving the country forward.”
And it underscores the GOP challenge of how you try to defeat a former president whom Republican voters have eagerly supported in the past.
Do you attack him directly — as Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson and Will Hurd have done?
Do you argue he’s betrayed Republican policy goals — as Mike Pence contends?
Do you run to his right and promise to be more effective than he was — as Ron DeSantis is trying to do?
Do you lean into the argument that Trump can’t win — as Americans for Prosperity is doing in its own ad campaign?
Do you try to ignore Trump and run your own campaign — which appears to be Tim Scott’s strategy?
Or, as the Club for Growth group is now doing, do you express your love for Trump but try to create a permission structure to support someone else?
Make no mistake: The GOP field is going after Trump; they’re all just doing it differently.
But our NBC News poll from last month — conducted after Trump’s multiple indictments — shows just how hard that is. Per the poll, 49% of national GOP primary voters want Trump to remain the party’s leader; 21% say they think Trump was a good president but are willing to consider other leaders; and 29% want to go in a completely different direction.
That Club for Growth group’s ad maybe comes closest to uniting the 50% of GOP primary voters willing to give another Republican a chance — it doesn’t attack Trump directly, while it opens the door to a non-Trump future.
Yet even then, it’s 49% to 50%. In a multi-candidate field.
Headline of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 7
That’s how many tossup state Senate seats Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s political team identified to reporters during a Tuesday briefing ahead of November’s legislative elections, per NBC News’ Gary Grumbach. Republicans need to gain a net of three seats to take control of the state Senate, and they’re also looking to hold onto control of the House of Delegates.
Youngkin has insisted that he is prioritizing his state’s upcoming elections, dodging recent questions about whether he might run for the White House. And his team is laser-focused on helping his party take control of the state legislature this year.
“Virginia’s a tossup state and this isn’t going to be easy,” said Matt Moran, the executive director of Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC. He said the path to victory “runs through purple districts,” where Youngkin fared well when he ran for governor in 2021.
Youngkin’s team is specifically targeting Republican voters who supported Youngkin in 2021 but then sat out the 2022 midterms. As part of that effort, Youngkin launched a “Secure Your Vote” program on Tuesday to encourage GOP voters to cast ballots early or by mail.
“We can’t go into Election Day down thousands of votes,” Youngkin said in a statement announcing the effort, later adding, “We fundamentally believe Secure Your Vote Virginia is how, together, we can win in 2023 and beyond.”
Other numbers to know
$3.7 million: How much Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor made off of her books since she joined the court in 2009, according to an Associated Press investigation that also found members of her staff urging groups to buy her books ahead of her appearances
3: The number of years for which a man was sentenced to federal prison for storming the Capitol on Jan. 6 while he was out on bail for a charge of first-degree attempted murder.
22%: The share of Republicans who have high confidence that the upcoming presidential election will be tallied correctly, compared to 71% of Democrats, an AP-NORC poll found.
More than 100: The number of rescues that have been made in Vermont amid major flooding.
$100 million: The amount that Bank of America must pay to customers after accusations of various transgressions like doubling up on some fees and opening accounts without consumer consent, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Tuesday.
52: The number of grand jurors who were selected in Fulton, Georgia, on Tuesday, and who may sign off on an indictment against former President Donald Trump if Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis pursues election interference charges against him, per NBC News’ Charlie Gile.
Eyes on 2024: What we heard from Will Hurd
Former Texas Republican Rep. Will Hurd joined “Meet the Press NOW” on Tuesday to talk about his 2024 presidential bid.
While he brushed aside his place at the bottom of GOP presidential polling, arguing that “this is not about peaking on Week 3, it’s about peaking before the first election,” he did acknowledge that the clock is ticking for the candidates in the race (like him) who want the party to move on from Trump.
“If you don’t have pathway to victory by the late winter, then you need to think about consolidating, and I think that guidance is sound,” Hurd said of advice New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu gave to the anti-Trump candidates.
“That’s five or six months away, which is enough time to start lighting [a] fire,” he added, before noting polling showing public unease about a rematch between Trump and Biden.
What else did we learn from Hurd?
- He isn’t changing his tune on not signing the GOP’s loyalty pledge: “I can’t lie to get access to a microphone, I’m not going to support Donald Trump.”
- His opposition to Trump stems from what Hurd has seen as Trump’s negative impact on GOP electoral success, but also because “I don’t agree with his temper and how he conducts things.”
- He said NATO should have announced that Ukraine will join it “as soon as the fighting stops.”
- He reluctantly backed Biden’s decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine to help “kick the Russians out of their own country.”
- And he dodged a question about the Iowa GOP’s push for a six-week abortion ban, saying he prefers a 15-week ban.
Watch the entire interview here.
In other campaign news…
“Not a No. 2 guy”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told the “Wisconsin Right Now” radio show that he would not be Trump’s running mate in 2024 if he was asked to be, saying “I don’t think so. I’m not a No. 2 guy.”
Trump speaks out on Ukraine: The former president condemned a decision by President Biden to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, claiming in a statement that the decision could “[drag] us further to World War III.”
Clean sweep: Trump has earned endorsements from each Republican member of Michigan’s congressional delegation, including Reps. Jack Bergman, Bill Huizenga, John James, Lisa McClain, John Moolenaar and Tim Walberg, Fox News reports.
GOP donor scramble: Republican presidential candidates are scrambling to meet the requirements to make sure they earn a spot on the debate stage, resorting to unconventional tactics to ensure they have support from at least 40,000 individual donors, the Washington Post reports.
On the airwaves: SOS America PAC, a group backing GOP Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’ presidential bid, reserved $220,000 worth of time on the airwaves in Georgia, North Carolina, Alabama, California and Texas, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm.
No Labels: The bipartisan group No Labels is hosting a town hall in New Hampshire next week with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and former Utah Gov. John Huntsman amid the group’s flirtations with a 2024 presidential bid.
No, No Labels: Former House Democratic leader Richard A. Gephardt plans to launch a group opposing a potential No Labels bid to run a third-party ticket in the general election, the Washington Post reports. Several aides and consultants who have joined the effort say a No Labels ticket would pull votes away from Biden and hand Trump a victory, if the general election is a rematch.
Second quarter wrap up: West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice raised almost $1 million in the second quarter of this year in his bid to unseat Sen. Manchin in 2024, his campaign announced Wednesday. Manchin hasn’t yet announced whether he’ll seek re-election, but Justice faces GOP Rep. Alex Mooney in a Republican primary.
Comeback kid? Politico reports that former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores is launching a campaign to take back the South Texas district she held for a few short months after a 2022 special election, before Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez flipped the seat back in November’s midterm elections.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
NBC News’ Katherine Doyle reports from the NATO summit in Lithuania about how critics are warning Ukraine won’t be safe until it’s a part of the alliance.
The Congressional Women’s Softball Game, a game between members of the press and Congress that raises money to help young adults diagnosed with breast cancer, is tonight at 7:00pm in Washington D.C.
