United Airlines maintained its full-year forecast on Tuesday but took an unusual step of offering a second forecast should the U.S. slip into a recession, calling the economy "impossible to predict." Either way, it expects to turn a profit.
The carrier warned alongside its first-quarter earnings that a recession could drive down profits this year, but said booking trends are stable.
The company left in place expectations issued in January for adjusted earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50, but said that in a recession, it would expect to earn between $7 per share and $9 per share on an adjusted basis.
"The Company's outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence," it said in a securities filing.
United Airlines said it plans to cut flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong.
United plans to trim domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter. That includes off-peak domestic flights, where demand has dropped the most. Rival Delta Air Lines as well as Frontier Airlines are also cutting their growth plans this year because of weaker-than-expected domestic bookings.
Profitable airlines United and Delta are capitalizing on demand from travelers willing to pay more for pricier seats and other higher-end products, even as economic concerns weigh on consumer sentiment amid President Donald Trump's trade war, mass government layoffs and other factors.
"The weakest region that we have is domestic," United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. He said the second-weakest segment is Canada, where United and other carriers have scaled back flights due to falling demand this year
Future bookings over the past two weeks have been stable, the company said, adding that premium-cabin bookings are up 17% from the same point last year and international bookings are up 5%, though the carrier did not provide a figure on domestic coach-cabin demand.
Europe-originating bookings to the United States are down 6% from last year, while those from Canada are down 9%, said United's chief commercial officer, Andrew Nocella, on an earnings call on Wednesday.
For the first quarter, United Airlines swung to a $387 million profit, or $1.16 a share, from a $124 million loss, or a loss of 38 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which exclude one-time gains related to aircraft sale-leasebacks, outpaced Wall Street's expectations of 76 cents per share.
Unit revenue for domestic flights fell 3.9% from last year during the first quarter, while unit sales from international routes rose more than 5%. Revenue of $13.21 billion was up more than 5% from a year ago, and came in slightly below the $13.26 billion that analysts expected, according to LSEG. Capacity was up almost 5% from the first quarter of 2024.
United Airlines said it expects to post second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25, in line with estimates, citing strong demand for premium-cabin bookings and international travel.
Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended March 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 76 cents expected
- Revenue: $13.21 billion vs. $13.26 billion expected
Delta last week said it could not reaffirm its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty in the market.
United doesn't expect "a meaningful direct impact from tariffs" tied to its airplane purchases, the airline's president, Brett Hart said on Wednesday's earnings call.
"Boeing accounts for the majority of our future total order book and most of our Airbus A321neos are produced in Alabama," he said.
While Boeing produces aircraft in the U.S. and Airbus makes some of its narrow-body planes in Alabama, the aircraft rely on a web of imported parts, including large components of CFM engines, which are made in a joint venture of GE Aerospace and France's Safran.
Delta's CEO, Ed Bastian, last week said the carrier won't pay new tariffs on its Alabama-assembled Airbus aircraft, despite the tariffs, and that it would defer any of that manufacturer's planes that are affected by new taxes.
