Surging meme coin popularity and "excess optimism" in early 2025 may be signaling a top in crypto asset prices, according to BCA Research, which urged investors Monday to "take profits and wait for a more attractive entry point." Meme coins have taken center stage in 2025 after bitcoin quadrupled in price over the past two years, helped by the debut of bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024 that went on to attract $40 billion in new money in their first year. The meme coin frenzy has been built not just on the promise of a new, pro-crypto presidential administration, but by President Donald Trump himself, who launched his own meme coin and signaled anyone else can do the same under the new regime. "The surge in meme coins, record-breaking bitcoin ETF inflows, and retail speculation suggest excess optimism, historically a warning signal," analysts at BCA Research led by Juan Correa wrote in a report. "Less fiscal policy than expected, moderating growth, and declining inflation could also create a less favorable macro environment for crypto in the coming months. While we remain long-term positive on bitcoin, we believe now is a prudent time to take profits and wait for a more attractive entry point." Correa also noted that a "furious spree of crypto ETF filings" has been unleashed, including not just cryptocurrencies tied to the Solana and Ripple networks, but also some of the biggest meme coins, including dogecoin , BONK , and even the President's TRUMP coin . At the same time, with institutional investors embracing crypto, discussions around pension fund allocations and bitcoin price targets are "reaching extreme levels," the BCA note said. "We are concerned that this raging optimism is a sign that we are near a top," the analysts added. "The share of [bitcoin] supply in profit is over 90%, which historically has marked tops in Bitcoin prices. The same is true for the share of market cap trading at recent prices – a sign that recent price action has been driven by speculative investors." Bitcoin has gained just 3% this year, while remaining above what some chartwatchers regard as a key support level of $90,000. Many analysts and investors expect bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of the year despite a more complex macroeconomic outlook than the market had expected as the year began. Still, seasoned bitcoin investors are accustomed to drawdowns of 30% or more during bull markets and have warned other traders to brace themselves for similar-sized declines throughout the year. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
