Final Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win at the Academy Awards
'The Brutalist' and 'Conclave' are predicted to win the most statuettes, but' Anora' will claim the night's top prize.
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Feb. 26, 2025): Oscar-winning actor Christopher Walken once said, “At its best, life is completely unpredictable.” He might as well have been talking about the current Academy Awards race.
In a year defined by industry upheaval, social media scandals and political turbulence, Hollywood’s biggest night is shaping up to be the grand finale of a season rife with chaos and brilliance. Just a few weeks ago, Variety — along with much of the industry — had its sights set on six possible best picture winners. Now, as the dust settles, the field has narrowed to three: “Anora,” “The Brutalist” and “Conclave.”
Topping the nomination tally is Netflix’s crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” which made history with 13 nods — the most ever for a non-English-language film. But a once-soaring campaign has taken a nosedive, thanks to resurfaced offensive tweets from lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón. With the film’s best picture hopes now all but evaporated, the streamer is left hanging on to its best bets: supporting actress frontrunner Zoe Saldaña and best original song contender “El Mal.” Those aside, “Emilia” risks joining “The Turning Point” (1977) and “The Color Purple” (1985) as the most-nominated films to leave Oscar night empty-handed.
One thing is certain: The best picture lineup is a marathon — clocking in at a record 24 hours and 45 minutes in total. Start watching them back-to-back, and you might just finish in time for the after-parties. The longest of the bunch? Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist.” But its projected Oscar haul ranges wildly — anywhere from zero to five wins. That kind of unclear projection has been shown before (see “Elvis”), and not always with favorable results.
And then there’s Edward Berger’s Vatican thriller “Conclave.” With its middlebrow appeal to older Academy voters, it could pull off an “Argo”-style coup — a best picture triumph without a best director nomination. With BAFTA and SAG wins under its belt — the same combo that propelled “Shakespeare in Love” (1998) to an upset over “Saving Private Ryan” — it could be the ultimate spoiler.
That brings us to “Anora,” which has had an erratic trajectory and only peaked in the past few weeks, after DGA and PGA victories. Over the past decade, a screenplay win at one of the precursors has been integral to securing a best picture win. “Anora” has lost at the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Should it fail to lock up a writing prize at the Oscars, it will need surprise BAFTA winner Mikey Madison to repeat if it wants to follow the playbook of “Nomadland,” which won best picture, directing and actress.
Read Variety’s final Oscar predictions below. You can see the rankings on each category page. The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: Neon “Anora” (Neon) ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Will Win: “Anora” (Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker)
Could Win: “Conclave” (Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman)
Should Win: “I’m Still Here” (Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Memoir of a Snail” (Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney); “Daughters” (Justin Benoliel, Laura Choi, James Cunningham, Kathryn Everett, Mindy Goldberg, Victor Kamwendo, Lisa Mazzotta); “The Wild Robot” (Jeff Hermann)Director
Image Credit: Neon Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker ***
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Coralie Fargeat
“The Substance” (Mubi)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)Will Win: Sean Baker (“Anora”)
Could Win: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Should Win: Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Eggers (“Nosferatu”); Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”); RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”)Actor
Image Credit: A24 Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)Will Win: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Could Win: Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”); John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”); Misagh Zare (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)Actress
Image Credit: Mubi Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)Will Win: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Could Win: Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
Should Win: Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”); Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”); Zendaya (“Challengers”)Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)Will Win: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Could Win: Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
Should Win: Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Tommy Dewey (“Saturday Night”); Bryan Tyree Henry (“The Fire Inside”); Sean San Jose (“Sing Sing”)Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Focus Features Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Felicity Jones
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Isabella Rossellini ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Will Win: Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
Could Win: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
Should Win: Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Michele Austin (“Hard Truths”); Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”); Divya Prabha (“All We Imagine as Light”)Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie FargeatWill Win: “A Real Pain” (Jesse Eisenberg)
Could Win: “Anora” (Sean Baker)
Should Win: “The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat)
Should Have Been Nominated: “His Three Daughters” (Azazel Jacobs); “In the Summers” (Alessandra Lacorazza Samudio); “Memoirs of a Snail” (Adam Elliott)Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Focus Features “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” WhitfieldWill Win: “Conclave” (Peter Straughn)
Could Win: “Nickel Boys” (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Should Win: “Sing Sing” (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Bikeriders” (Jeff Nichols); “I’m Still Here” (Murilo Hauser, Heltor Lorega); “Wicked” (Dana Fox, Winnie Holzman)Animated Feature
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***Will Win: “The Wild Robot” (Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann)
Could Win: “Inside Out 2” (Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen)
Should Win: “Memoir of a Snail” (Liz Kearney, Adam Elliott)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Transformers One” (Josh Cooley, Don Murphy, Tom DeSanto, Lorenzo di Bonaventura, Michael Bay, Mark Vahradian)Production Design
Image Credit: Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures “The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Will Win: “Wicked” (Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales)
Could Win: “The Brutalist” (Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia)
Should Win: “Nosferatu” (Craig Lathrop, Beatrice Brentnerova)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Maria” (Tom Brown, Guy Hendrix Dyas, Sandro Piccarozzi); “Memoir of a Snail” (Bob Shea); “Queer” (Stefano Baisi, Monica Sallustio, Lisa Scoppa)Cinematography
Image Credit: A24 “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)Will Win: “The Brutalist” (Lol Crawley)
Could Win: “Nosferatu” (Jarin Blaschke)
Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Greig Fraser)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Better Man” (Erik A. Wilson); “Longlegs” (Andres Arochi Tinajero); “Nickel Boys” (Jomo Fray)Costume Design
Image Credit: Universal Pictures “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***Will Win: “Wicked” (Paul Tazewell)
Could Win: “Nosferatu” (Linda Muir)
Should Win: “Gladiator II” (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Should Have Been Nominated: “”Dune: Part Two” (Jacqueline West); Saturday Night” (Danny Glicker); “The Substance” (Emmanuelle Youchnovski)Film Editing
Image Credit: Focus Features “Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Will Win: “Conclave” (Nick Emerson)
Could Win: “Anora” (Sean Baker)
Should Win: “Wicked” (Myron Kerstein)
Should Have Been Nominated: “September 5” (Hansjörg Weißbrich); “The Substance” (Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet, Valentin Feron); “Will & Harper” (Monique Zavistovski)Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Mubi
“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Will Win: “The Substance” (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Could Win: “Wicked” (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)
Should Win: “The Substance”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Dune: Part Two” (Rita Fekete, Donald Mowat, Eva Von Bahr); “Kinds of Kindness” (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston); “Maria” (Heike Merker, Adruitha Lee, Pamela Goldammer, Arjen Tuiten)Sound
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Could Win: “A Complete Unknown” (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey and David Giammarco)
Should Win: “Wicked” (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Nosferatu” (Damian Volpe, Stephen Little, David Giammarco, Paul Cotterell, Jakub Čech); “The Piano Lesson” (Onnalee Blank, Brian Tarlecki, Ando Johnson, Paul Reed); “Saturday Night” (William Files, Lee Gilmore, Tom Ozanich, William Files, Steve Morrow)Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)
Could Win: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Should Win: “Better Man” (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Stopmotion” (Daniel Karlsson); “Tuesday” (Andrew Simmonds, Mike Stillwell); “The Wild Robot” (Jeff Budsberg)Original Score
Image Credit: A24 “The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Will Win: “The Brutalist” (Daniel Blumberg)
Could Win: “Conclave” (Volker Bertelmann)
Should Win: “The Wild Robot” (Kris Bowers)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Dune: Part Two” (Hans Zimmer); “Flow” (Gints Zilbalodis, Rihards Zalupe); “Queer” (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)Original Song
Image Credit: Netflix
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (A24)Will Win: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Diane Warren)
Could Win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Jacques Audiard, Clément Ducol and Camille)
Should Win: “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Blitz” (“Winter Coat” by Nicholas Britell, Steve McQueen, and Taura Stinson); “Emilia Pérez” (“El Alegato” by Zoe Saldaña, Clément Ducol and Camille); “Kneecap” (“Sick In The Head” by Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara, DJ Próvaí, Adrian Louis Richard Mcleod, and Toddla T)Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution)
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse) ***
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)Will Win: “Porcelain War” (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen)
Could Win: “No Other Land” (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Should Win: “No Other Land”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Daughters” (Angela Patton, Natalie Rae); “Skywalkers: A Love Story” (Jeff Zimbalist, Maria Bukhonina, Tamir Ardon, Chris Smith, Nick Spicer); “Will & Harper” (Josh Greenbaum, Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Chris Leggett, Rafael Marmor)International Feature
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics “Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix)
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)Will Win: “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
Could Win: “Emilia Pérez” (France)
Should Win: “I’m Still Here”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Devil’s Bath” (Austria); “All We Imagine as Light” (India); “Kneecap” (Ireland)Animated Short
Image Credit: Toei Animation “Beautiful Men” (Miyu Distribution)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Magic Candies” (Toei Animation) ***
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film)
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution)Will Win: “Magic Candies” (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Could Win: “Wander to Wonder” (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Should Win: “Beautiful Men” (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
Should Have Been Nominated: “A Crab in the Pool”Documentary Short
Image Credit: MTV Documentary Films “Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Instruments of a Beating Heart” (The New York Times OpDocs/Cineric Creative)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)Will Win: “I Am Ready, Warden” (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Could Win: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)
Should Win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
Should Have Been Nominated: “A Swim Lesson”Live Action Short
Image Credit: Netflix “Anuja” (Netflix) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Manifest)Will Win: “Anuja” (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
Could Win: “I’m Not a Robot” (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
Should Win: “I’m Not a Robot”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Dovecote”Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)
Image Credit: Matt Sayles for Variety Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives
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- How Demi Moore’s Awards Run for ‘The Substance’ Could Redefine Horror at the Oscars
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- If I Had an Oscar Ballot 2025: A Year of Triumphs Amid Trying Times
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- How Isabella Rossellini Could Land in the Oscar History Books for ‘Conclave’
- Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?
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- ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners
- Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’
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Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)
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- Ariana Grande on Glinda’s New ‘Wicked 2’ Song and ‘Mulling Over’ the ‘Eternal Sunshine’ Deluxe Release: ‘I Want to Let My Children Miss Me for Two Seconds’
- ‘Nickel Boys’ Director RaMell Ross on Making the Film and Being Open to Working With Marvel Producers ‘Willing to Challenge Their Beliefs’
- Monica Barbaro on Portraying Joan Baez in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ Having a Mixed Identity in Hollywood and Being Mentored by Tom Cruise
- Cynthia Erivo Reveals She Co-Wrote an Original Song for Elphaba in ‘Wicked: For Good’: ‘When We Filmed It, the Entire Crew Was in Tears’
- Steve McQueen on Casting Saoirse Ronan in ‘Blitz’ and Why Cinema ‘Is the Best Medium in the World’
- Denzel Washington on ‘Gladiator 2’ and Calling Ryan Coogler to Apologize for Spilling ‘Black Panther 3’ News
- Ray Fisher on Going From Bartender During ‘Fences’ Broadway Theatre Run to Starring in ‘The Piano Lesson’: ‘It’s a Full Circle Moment’
- Guy Pearce on ‘The Brutalist’ Shocker, Watching Christopher Nolan Win the Oscar and the ‘L.A. Confidential’ Sequel That Almost Happened
- Jennifer Lopez on ‘Unstoppable’ and Fighting Latina Stereotypes Early in Her Career: ‘Why Can’t I Be the Girl Next Door?’
- Pharrell Williams on Seeing His ‘Flaws’ in the Lego Music Doc ‘Piece by Piece’ and Encountering PETA Protestors at Screenings: ‘Let Them Speak’
- ‘Sing Sing’ Breakout Clarence Maclin on Oscar Buzz, If He’s Playing Himself, and Why Prison Theater Programs ‘Weren’t Just Art, They Were Survival’
- Pamela Anderson on Beyonce’s ‘Beywatch’ Homage and Watching Jamie Lee Curtis Turn Orange for ‘The Last Showgirl’
- ‘The Piano Lesson’ Star Danielle Deadwyler on How August Wilson’s Plays Are ‘Love Letters to Black America’ and Being ‘Open’ to Superhero Movies
- Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote
- Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success
- ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler
- Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’
- John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’
- Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’
More Information (All Categories)
Getty About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
