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. 2021 Jul;595(7869):707-712.
doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03677-y. Epub 2021 Jun 7.

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

Emma B Hodcroft  1   2   3 , Moira Zuber  4 , Sarah Nadeau  5   6 , Timothy G Vaughan  5   6 , Katharine H D Crawford  7   8   9 , Christian L Althaus  10 , Martina L Reichmuth  10 , John E Bowen  11 , Alexandra C Walls  11 , Davide Corti  12 , Jesse D Bloom  7   8   13 , David Veesler  11 , David Mateo  14 , Alberto Hernando  14 , Iñaki Comas  15   16 , Fernando González-Candelas  16   17 ; SeqCOVID-SPAIN consortium; Tanja Stadler #  5   6 , Richard A Neher #  18   19
Collaborators, Affiliations

Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

Emma B Hodcroft et al. Nature.2021 Jul.

Abstract

Following its emergence in late 2019, the spread of SARS-CoV-21,2 has been tracked by phylogenetic analysis of viral genome sequences in unprecedented detail3-5. Although the virus spread globally in early 2020 before borders closed, intercontinental travel has since been greatly reduced. However, travel within Europe resumed in the summer of 2020. Here we report on a SARS-CoV-2 variant, 20E (EU1), that was identified in Spain in early summer 2020 and subsequently spread across Europe. We find no evidence that this variant has increased transmissibility, but instead demonstrate how rising incidence in Spain, resumption of travel, and lack of effective screening and containment may explain the variant's success. Despite travel restrictions, we estimate that 20E (EU1) was introduced hundreds of times to European countries by summertime travellers, which is likely to have undermined local efforts to minimize infection with SARS-CoV-2. Our results illustrate how a variant can rapidly become dominant even in the absence of a substantial transmission advantage in favourable epidemiological settings. Genomic surveillance is critical for understanding how travel can affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and thus for informing future containment strategies as travel resumes.

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